Tag Archives: commentary

Support for gay marriage is up by 20% in Utah? Not so fast.

Posted on January 17, 2014 by Adam Brown

It may be the case that the 20% “shift” in support was really a reflection of different question wordings and sample frames. A year and a half ago, my colleagues posted these polling results showing that 28% of Utah voters … Continue reading →

Posted in Everything | Tagged commentary, polls, same-sex marriage, utah voter poll | 1 Comment

What caught people’s interest in 2012?

Posted on January 2, 2013 by Adam Brown

This blog has been live for a little over two years now. We published 69 new posts in 2012, for a total of 144 in the archive. Our most popular posts in 2012 generally fell into three categories: Posts about … Continue reading →

Posted in Everything | Tagged commentary, navel gazing | Comments Off

What the election shows: That social science works

Posted on November 7, 2012 by Adam Brown

Before any of the debates. Before SuperStorm Sandy. Before the last-minute barrage of campaign advertising. He predicted the result perfectly over a month ago. Over the past several months, political scientists have consistently forecasted an Obama victory–a relatively narrow one, … Continue reading →

Posted in Everything | Tagged campaigns, commentary, measurement, polls, presidential election, voting | Comments Off

Why pollsters should release their topline results

Posted on November 6, 2012 by Adam Brown

Polls can be done well or poorly. Releasing topline results aids the public in detecting poor polls. The Tribune reported a Mason-Dixon poll last week suggesting a wide Republican advantage in the race for Salt Lake County mayor. Yesterday, the … Continue reading →

Posted in Everything | Tagged commentary, measurement, polls, public opinion | Comments Off

Do statistics (like absentee rates) matter in reelection campaigns?

Posted on April 11, 2012 by Adam Brown

I encourage voters to use these statistics to supplement other information, not to supplant it. I calculate a lot of statistics about the Utah legislature. Lately, I’ve noticed various statistics being used in some of the nomination battles that are … Continue reading →

Posted in Everything | Tagged absenteeism, campaigns, commentary, delegates, ideology, legislature, nominations | 1 Comment

The Tea Party’s declining favorability

Posted on April 2, 2012 by Adam Brown

“Unfavorable” views of the Tea Party movement have jumped from 22% in February 2010 to 51% in March 2012, mostly at the expense of “don’t know” respondents. The Tribune ran an article over the weekend about the Tea Party’s (waning) … Continue reading →

Posted in Everything | Tagged commentary, polls, tea party | Comments Off

Is the gender gap among Utah Mormons widening?

Posted on December 15, 2011 by Adam Brown

The 2010 exit poll suggests that 49.6%-52.0% of Utah Mormons are female. Meanwhile, the 2010 U.S. Census shows that 50.3% of voting-age Utahns are female. After fruitful discussion with one of the authors of the report discussed here, I have … Continue reading →

Posted in Everything | Tagged commentary, mormons, polls, utah colleges exit poll, women | Comments Off

Redistricting backgrounders – What have we learned?

Posted on June 13, 2011 by Adam Brown

Over the past few weeks, we’ve posted a ridiculous amount of research about the redistricting process here in Utah. What have we learned? Here’s the Cliff Notes version. Looking back: How has Utah’s population grown since 2000? Utah’s population is … Continue reading →

Posted in Everything | Tagged commentary, congress, counties, demographics, imbalance, immigration, jim matheson, legislature, partisanship, racial-ethnic, redistricting, republic, utah county | Comments Off

Redistricting backgrounders

Posted on May 26, 2011 by Adam Brown

Over the next couple weeks, we will publish several posts looking at Utah’s ongoing redistricting process. We’ll begin by looking closely at the 2010 U.S. Census results and discussing what they might mean for redistricting. We’ll also take a look … Continue reading →

Posted in Everything | Tagged commentary, counties, demographics, imbalance, immigration, jim matheson, legislature, partisanship, redistricting | Comments Off

How do you interpret public opinion data?

Posted on May 2, 2011 by Kelly Patterson

As Adam pointed out in his post earlier, the Deseret News story seems to make a conflict out of two findings that probably do not conflict. The seemingly different findings can be reconciled when a few basics about the nature … Continue reading →

Posted in Everything | Tagged commentary, immigration | Comments Off