Utah legislators serve longer than they used to

Posted on May 2, 2012 by Adam Brown

Legislators today stick around longer than legislators in the past.

Bob Bernick reports today that retirements and nomination upsets will bring 15 freshmen to the 75-member Utah House of Representatives. November may bring us even more freshmen. I reported last year that the Utah legislature has fewer freshmen these days than in past decades. After reading Bernick’s column, I took a look at how long Utah legislators tend to stick around.

Legislators serve for more terms

If you looked around the Utah House on opening day of the 2011 session, the average Representative was entering into his or her sixth legislative session. Meanwhile, the average Senator was beginning a tenth year of cumulative legislative service, with 2.8 years served in the House and 7.1 in the Senate.

These averages have risen steadily since 1900, as seen in the graph below. From 1900 through 1940, the average Utah Representative was in his second year of service at any given time, while the average Utah Senator was in his third year in the Senate (blue line) and fourth year overall (red line). These numbers rose over the next 60 years. Legislators today stick around longer than legislators in the past.

Average tenure in the Utah legislature

Freshmen are an endangered species

The flip side is that there are fewer freshmen at any given time than used to be the case. The figure below shows the percentage of legislators in each chamber that were in their first term at any given time. (The percentage is consistently lower in the Senate than the House, partly because many “new” Senators served previously in the House, so they aren’t really “freshmen” when they arrive in the Senate.) Bob Bernick’s column today identifies 15 Representatives who definitely won’t return next year. If another 5 lose in June or November, then 26% of the House will be freshmen–only slightly higher than usual for recent years.

Percent of legislators in their first year of service

Who serves the longest?

Right now, the senior Senator is Lyle Hillyard, who just completed his 28th session in the Senate. Because he also served 4 years in the House, he now has 32 years of combined experience in the Utah legislature.

Only two other legislators have served longer. Mike Dmitrich served 24 years in the House and 16 in the Senate for a combined 40 years of service. Haven Barlow served 3 years in the House and 38 in the Senate for a combined 41 years of service.

This table shows the legislators who have served 25 years or more. There is a four-way tie for sixth place, which Gene Davis will break next January.

Rank Legislator House years Senate years Total Years Final year
1 Haven Barlow 3 38 41 1994
2 Mike Dmitrich 24 16 40 2008
3 Lyle Hillyard 4 28 32 running
4 Omar Bunnell 0 28 28 1992
4 Alonzo Hopkin 1 27 28 1961
6 Brent Goodfellow 21 5 26 2010
6 Lorin Pace 22 4 26 1990
6 Michael Waddoups 10 16 26 retiring
6 Gene Davis 12 14 26 current
10 Wilford Rex Black 0 25 25 1997
10 LeRay McAllister 8 17 25 1997

Why?

Maybe you’re wondering why legislators are sticking around longer than they used to, or why there are fewer freshmen than used to be the case. For discussion, see my previous post.

About Adam Brown: Adam Brown is an assistant professor of political science at Brigham Young University and a research fellow with the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. You can learn more about him at his website.

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Do statistics (like absentee rates) matter in reelection campaigns?

Posted on April 11, 2012 by Adam Brown

I encourage voters to use these statistics to supplement other information, not to supplant it.

I calculate a lot of statistics about the Utah legislature. Lately, I’ve noticed various statistics being used in some of the nomination battles that are happening right now. Incumbent legislators are being confronted by challengers over their party support scores, their ideology scores, their absentee rates, their bill sponsorship activity, and so on.

I have mixed feelings about this politicized use of these statistics. On the one hand, I’m pleased to provide useful data that can serve as one additional tool in assessing legislators’ performance. On the other hand, I would encourage people not to focus so much on any particular statistic that they overlook nuance. It’s probably more important to ask your legislator what they think about specific issues than to base your decision on one of my statistics.

Let’s take an example that is being used in at least a couple different races right now: Absenteeism.

Certainly, casting votes is the defining aspect of a legislator’s job. At the same time, we have decided as a state (through our state constitution) to have a part-time legislature. Our state constitution limits the legislative session to 45 days. The result is that bills are heard rapidly on the floor, especially near the end of the session. Taking an urgently needed bathroom break can, at times, cause a legislator to miss a dozen votes. Serving in leadership, sponsoring a large number of bills, or sponsoring a single high-impact bill can also force a legislator to leave the floor at times in order to fulfill all their duties as a legislator. Thus, it would be silly to look only at a legislator’s absentee rate without also considering the reasons for that absentee rate.

I think it’s valuable to calculate absentee rates and other statistics to learn more about how our legislature works. That’s why I do it–to help us understand trends and such.

But here’s the punchline: I encourage voters to use these statistics to supplement other information, not to supplant it. If my statistics didn’t exist, then delegates would be asking legislators about their views on the issues, and they would base their votes on that. Maybe my statistics can supplement those sorts of discussion in some useful way, but they should not supplant it. Delegates should still ask legislators their views on issues, rather than neglecting that duty and focusing instead on some isolated statistic.

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What Issues Most Influence Approval of the Legislature?

Posted on April 11, 2012 by Quin Monson

Issues related to schools seem to be driving what people think about the legislature.

This analysis was performed by Robert Richards, a student research fellow at BYU’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, in collaboration with CSED faculty. The writing is mostly his. Inquiries about this research should come to Adam Brown or Quin Monson.

Near the end of the recent legislative session, the Utah legislature’s approval rating among voters was about 48%. We often hear in the news about approval ratings such as these, but what do they mean really? What about the legislature do Utahns approve or disapprove? Based on a Utah Voter Poll conducted near the end of the legislative session, it turns out that people judge the legislature based on their personal views on policy and how well the legislature’s actions represent those views. While some personal characteristics like age and partisanship do also play a role, we found that opinions about school funding and sex education are the best predictors of overall approval of the Utah legislature once other factors are taken into account.1

Our poll also asked about other issues, including health care, taxes, gay marriage, environmental protection, jobs, public lands, liquor reform, and bringing the Olympics back to Utah. Liquor reform and the Olympics had a modest correlation with overall evaluations of the legislature, but none of the other issue questions did (once partisanship, age, and other demographics were taken into account).

In the last session, at least, issues related to schools seem to be driving what people think about the legislature. The table below compares the results of two separate questions from our poll. The first question asks whether Utah spends too little, too much, or the right amount on education. The second asks whether the respondent approves or disapproves of the legislature overall. Those who thought the state spent too much or about the right amount on education approve of the legislature by about a 2 to 1 margin. The exact opposite is true of those who think the state spends too little on education.2

Regarding education, Utah spends… Disapprove of legislature Approve of legislature
Too Little 61% 39%
About Right 32% 68%
Too Much 34% 66%

Another issue related to schools that plays a role in Utahns’ evaluation of the legislature is the issue of sex education. Those who don’t think contraceptives should be taught in schools were much more likely to approve of the legislature than those who held the opposite opinion.3

Public schools in Utah should teach about the use of contraceptives Disapprove of legislature Approve of legislature
Strongly Disagree 25% 75%
Disagree 22% 78%
Neither Agree nor Disagree 48% 52%
Agree 43% 57%
Strongly Agree 87% 13%

For the 2012 session, it looks like education issues were on everyone’s minds. Utahns seem to evaluate the legislature mostly on their performance regarding these issues. This is not to say that the legislature or state policy is right or wrong either way, but it does suggest that Utahns use their own views of what is right for the state’s schools to judge the legislature.

Methodological notes

The Utah Voter Poll (UVP) is a sample of actual Utah voters who were invited to join an online panel as part of the Utah Colleges Exit Poll. Like all exit poll participants, UVP panel members were selected via a probability sample of Utah voters who vote at a polling place on election day. This version of the UVP was fielded online from February 27th to March 11th. 504 respondents answered the questions addressed here, producing a margin of error of roughly 4 percentage points. The margin is larger when looking at a subgroup; when looking only at Republicans, for example, the margin of error is about 7 percentage points. The margin of error is also affected by the complex sampling design and is actually different for each question, depending on the distribution of answers.

Following is the exact question wording used along with results in parentheses:

“Do you approve or disapprove of how the Utah State Legislature is handling its job?”: Strongly approve (2.1%), approve (45.6%), disapprove (29.1%), strongly disapprove (23.2%).

“For each of the categories below, do you think the government of the state of Utah spends too much, too little, or about the right amount? (K-12 Education)”: too much (6.9%), about right (24.6%), too little (68.5%).

“Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with the following statements about issues the state government has recently considered. -Public schools in Utah should teach about the use of contraceptives.”: strongly agree (13.6%), disagree (15.7%), neither agree nor disagree (12.1%), agree (25.6%), strongly agree (33.1%).

About Quin Monson: Quin Monson is Associate Professor of Political Science and Associate Director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University.

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Why are Liljenquist’s former colleagues split on his candidacy?

Posted on April 10, 2012 by Adam Brown

Liljenquist’s former colleagues are evenly split on his candidacy, but it’s hard to explain the split using ideology.

Today, Dan Liljenquist announced that 13 of the 22 Republicans in the state senate have endorsed his challenge against Orrin Hatch. I thought I’d do a quick comparison of the 13 who endorsed him to the 9 who did not.

To focus this a bit, I’ll only look at those state senators who actually served with Dan Liljenquist. Senators Weiler, Anderson, and Osmond didn’t begin their legislative service until after Liljenquist had stepped down; they replaced Senators Liljenquist, Stowell, and Buttars. If we ignore these three, that leaves 19 Republican state senators who (a) served with Liljenquist and (b) are still in the senate.

Of these 19 Republican senate colleagues, 10 have endorsed Dan Liljenquist (according to the list of endorsers at Liljenquist’s website), implying that 9 have declined to do so.

This table shows the name of each of the 19 Republican state senators and whether they have endorsed Dan Liljenquist (according to Liljenquist’s website). The table also gives each senator’s 2011 ideology score (where a more conservative voting record produces a higher score; most Senate Democrats have scores well below zero). The table is sorted by ideology score. Take a look:

Senator Liljenquist endorsement Ideology score (2011)
Hillyard, Lyle W. Yes 57.9
Van Tassell, Kevin T. No 61
Christensen, Allen M. No 66.8
Hinkins, David P. Yes 68.2
Knudson, Peter C. No 71.4
Bramble, Curtis S. No 74.1
Okerlund, Ralph Yes 74.1
Adams, J. Stuart Yes 77.8
Reid, Stuart C. Yes 78.2
Urquhart, Stephen H. Yes 79.6
Niederhauser, Wayne L. Yes 79.8
Thatcher, Daniel W. No 80
Stevenson, Jerry W. Yes 81
Waddoups, Michael G. No 84
Valentine, John L. No 85.5
Madsen, Mark B. No 90.7
Stephenson, Howard A. Yes 93.8
Dayton, Margaret Yes 97.3
Jenkins, Scott K. No 99.5

For  comparison, Dan Liljenquist’s ideology score in 2011 was 84.9.

What’s striking is that there is no pattern at all when it comes to ideology scores. The average ideology score of those endorsing Liljenquist (78.8) is roughly the same as the average of those not endorsing him (79.2).

Of the two Republican Senators with the highest ideology scores (Dayton and Jenkins), one endorsed him and one did not. Of the two Republican Senators with the lowest scores (Hillyard and Van Tassell), one endorsed him and one did not.

Liljenquist’s former colleagues are evenly split on his candidacy, but it’s hard to explain the split using ideology. 10 have endorsed him and 9 have not, but the reason for this split is not clear.

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The Utah Priorities Survey: Top issues in 2010 and 2012

Posted on April 9, 2012 by Adam Brown

The list of top ten issues Utah voters are most concerned with was mostly filled with themes we’ve seen throughout the last few elections

This is a guest post by Morgan Lyon Cotti, Senior Research Analyst at the Utah Foundation.

Last week Adam Brown wrote a post about the Tea Party’s declining favorability, and cited polling data showing that unfavorable views of the Tea Party have increased considerably since 2010. This is also reflected in recent survey’s Utah Foundation has completed as well.

In each gubernatorial election year, Utah Foundation holds its Utah Priorities Project. which begins with a survey of voters to assess which issues are most important in the upcoming election, and how they feel about Utah’s economy, society and politics. The 2012 Utah Priorities Survey began by asking a sample of 400 people two open-ended questions: 1) What would you say is the greatest issues facing Utah? and 2) What is the next greatest issue? The answers from the open-ended survey were analyzed and grouped into 19 major topic areas, from which a larger survey was created and administered to 804 respondents statewide from February 15-22, 2012. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5% and the data are weighted by congressional district.

During this election year, the list of top ten issues Utah voters are most concerned with was mostly filled with themes we’ve seen throughout the last few elections, like jobs and the economy, K-12 education, energy issues, healthcare, and taxes and state government spending. There are some issues that were priorities in 2010, like states’ rights and ethics of elected officials that dropped in significance. Lack of concern over ethics is surely because there were no notable scandals during this year’s legislative session. However, the issue over states’ rights tells a different story. (Bold face indicates items added to the top top ten in 2012; italics indicates items that fell from the top ten since 2010.)

Utah Priorities Survey
Top Issues in 2010 Top Issues in 2012
1 Jobs and the economy Jobs and the economy
2 Government spending K-12 education
3 K-12 education Energy issues
4 Healthcare Healthcare
5 Ethics of elected officials Taxes and state government spending
6 Taxes Higher education
7 Energy issues Environmental issues
8 States’ rights Partisan politics
9 Environmental issues Poverty
10 Immigration Immigration

In 2010, the Tea Party was seen as much more favorable, and was influential in shaping public discourse and opinion. As such, the issue of states’ rights was one of the top priorities of Utah voters that year, and the top issue for registered Republicans and Republican delegates. In addition, Republican delegates also listed protecting gun rights and allowing mining and grazing on federal lands as top issues. These issues have fallen considerably since then. In 2012, protecting states rights ranked 15th (out of 19 issues) for all voters and 7th for Republicans. And though Republican law makers and gubernatorial candidates have focused on access to public lands the last few months, we’ve seen this dialogue has not made it a priority for voters, who ranked it 17th, or even Republican voters, who ranked it 13th.

Another interesting note, one of the issues that made the top ten list this year for the first time is partisan politics. This may signal that in addition to not prioritizing some of those issues that were pushed by partisan forces in 2010, voters see the actual conflict created by partisan politics as problematic.

To learn more about the Utah Priorities Project and voter survey visit: http://www.utahfoundation.org/reports/?p=839.

To learn more about the gubernatorial candidate survey visit: http://www.utahfoundation.org/reports/?p=847.

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The Utah legislature passes far more bills than Congress

Posted on April 4, 2012 by Adam Brown

We should expect fewer laws out of the Utah legislature than out of Congress, yet we see the opposite.

As I prepped some lecture data for my Congress course today, I was surprised at something I hadn’t noticed before: Congress passes far fewer laws than the Utah legislature.

I did a double take. How could it be? Utah’s legislators meet for only 45 days, but Congress meets year-round. Utah legislators govern a small state of only 2-3 million, home to 0.9% of the country’s population, but Congress governs a large nation of over 300 million residents. Utah’s legislature has only 104 members pushing their projects, but Congress has 535 legislators pushing their personal projects.

What do we see? Utah has less time to write laws, a smaller population to govern, and fewer legislators pushing pet projects. Add to that Utah’s love of the old conservative motto: “That government is best which governs least.” Because of all this, we should expect fewer laws out of the Utah legislature than out of Congress, yet we see the opposite.

The data

Each Congress lasts two full years. We are presently witnessing the 112th Congress, spanning January 2011 through January 2013. To make things comparable, I compare all bills passed in 2009 and 2010 by the Utah legislature to all bills passed during the 111th Congress (Jan 2009 through Jan 2011) by Congress.

If you want to know more about my data, check the footnote at the end of this sentence.1

The comparison

Utah’s legislature (blue line) passes roughly twice as many bills as Congress (red line) typically does during the same time period.

Utah passed more bills during the 2011-2012 sessions than during any other two-year period in this chart. If any special sessions are held in 2012, then the total will rise. Meanwhile, there has been a downward trend in Congress since the 2003-2004 session.

Bills per capita

The difference is even more striking when we consider population. In this next chart, I’ve divided the number of bills passed by the population of Utah (in millions) and the United States as a whole (also in millions). During any given two-year period, Utah’s legislature tends to enact roughly 300 new laws for every 1 million residents. Meanwhile, Congress enacts roughly 1 or 2 for every million residents.

Bills per legislator

Here’s one more way to look at it. I’ve divided the number of bills by the number of legislators serving in each body. Utah has 104 legislators (75 in the House, 29 in the Senate) and Congress has 535 (435 in the House, 100 in the Senate).

On average, a typical Utah legislator passes 7-8 bills during any two-year period. Meanwhile, a typical member of Congress passes less than 1 during the same period.

Why the difference?

I can think offhand of two explanations for this gap.

First, we live in a federal system. I suppose that it’s possible that members of Congress are choosing to leave most legislating to the states, so they are passing fewer bills to allow states to lead on policymaking. (As I write this, I can hear a solid majority of Utah legislators laughing out loud.) I’m not sure this is the right explanation.

Second, we have a single subject rule in Utah. The state’s constitution prohibits the legislature from addressing more than one topic in a single bill. (Caveat: Utah’s courts  interpreted this rule broadly in a 2008 case.) Because Congress has no single subject rule, it’s possible that bills passed out of Congress are much, much longer and far-reaching than bills passed out of the legislature.

Unfortunately, I don’t have data on bill length handy. Still, Congressional bills would have to be roughly 10 times longer than Utah bills to explain the gap in “new bills per legislator.” Moreover, Congressional bills would have to be roughly 200 times longer than Utah bills to account for the “new bills per million residents.”

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The Tea Party’s declining favorability

Posted on April 2, 2012 by Adam Brown

“Unfavorable” views of the Tea Party movement have jumped from 22% in February 2010 to 51% in March 2012, mostly at the expense of “don’t know” respondents.

The Tribune ran an article over the weekend about the Tea Party’s (waning) influence in Utah politics. I was quoted characterizing some trends in the national polling data. For the curious, here are the exact polling numbers. My statements were based on trends in two separate polls.

Poll 1: Declining Tea Party favorability

The first is from Fox News, generally posed to a sample of around 1000 voters. Here’s the question wording:

“I’m going to read you the names of several groups and individuals. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. If you’ve never heard of one, please just say so. … The Tea Party Movement.”

The results are in the figure below. Note that “favorable” has been mostly flat (with a minor downward trend) since this question was first asked in early 2010. “Unfavorable” views of the Tea Party movement have jumped from 22% in February 2010 to 51% in March 2012, mostly at the expense of “don’t know” respondents.

D you have a generally favorable of unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement?

We see that the tea party maxed out its support two years ago. Those who weren’t familiar with it at the time are overwhelmingly “unfavorable” today. Some of those who were “favorable” two years ago have shifted to “unfavorable.” From these polls, it appears that the tea party’s moment is waning nationwide.

Poll 2: Steady Tea Party membership

The second poll was run by Quinnipiac University, generally to over 2000 respondents each time. Here’s the question wording: “Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not?”

It’s a very different thing to ask people whether they are “part of the Tea Party movement” (as this poll does) instead of whether they have a “favorable” opinion. You’ll get far fewer “unsure” responses when asking this question. Generally, people know whether they are part of something or not.

Because the question is different, the trend is also a little different. We see a pretty flat line from early 2010 (when the question was first asked) until February 2012, the most recent version of this poll. Roughly 12-16% of respondents are “part” of the Tea Party movement in any given poll. That’s about one-third as many respondents as had a “favorable” opinion of the Tea Party in the Fox News poll.

Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not?

Punchline

There are roughly as many people (12-16%) today who consider themselves “part of the Tea Party movement” as two years ago. There are also almost as many people today (30%) with a favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement as two years ago (35%). However, there has been a steep drop in the percentage of people who don’t have an opinion about the Tea Party, from 42% two years ago to 19% today. Most of them have developed an unfavorable opinion, producing a rise from 22% two years ago to 51% today in the percentage with an unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party.

You can find lots more polling about the tea party here.

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Cage match: Casey Anderson vs Evan Vickers

Posted on March 20, 2012 by Adam Brown

Rep. Vickers and Sen. Anderson disagree relatively often for members of the same party.

Correction (April 3, 2012): A database error caused my query to omit roughly half of the votes held each year. The omitted votes were roughly random, so the general patterns aren’t much different here than originally reported (when viewed as percents). That is, we still find that disagreements are rare. The main change you’ll notice from this correction is that the raw numbers are higher. I now report roughly twice as many disagreements in 2012 as I reported previously, although the rate of disagreements is roughly the same (since I now report twice as many agreements, too).

Sen. Casey Anderson (R-Cedar City) was appointed last year to serve out the remainder of Sen. Dennis Stowell’s term after his death from cancer. Rep. Vickers (R-Cedar City) sought the appointment, but lost. With election time upon us, Rep. Vickers is challenging Sen. Anderson for the Republican nomination.

Neither has been in the legislature long. Sen. Anderson has served only a single year. Rep. Vickers has served four years in the Utah House. Although their service overlapped only in 2012, let’s take a quick look at their voting in 2012 to see what differences we find.

One caution: Since we’re comparing a representative to a senator, we can only compare their votes on the final version of bills that pass. I explained the reasons for this limitation the first time I compared a Senator’s record to a Representative’s. Long story short: This means we’re likely to underestimate the true amount of disagreement a little.

Rep. Vickers and Sen. Anderson disagree relatively often for members of the same party. They disagreed 11.1% of the time during the 2012 session.

Most often, it’s Rep. Vickers’s “yes” to Sen. Anderson’s “no.”

Anderson “yes” Anderson “no”
Vickers “yes” 382 29
Vickers “no” 9 2

Here’s the 9 bills where Sen. Anderson voted “yes” to Rep. Vickers’s “no”:

Here’s the 39 bills where Sen. Anderson voted “no” to Rep. Vickers’s “yes”:

If you’d like to see a complete list of all their disagreements in 2012, send me an email and ask.

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Cage match: Patrick Painter vs Ralph Okerlund

Posted on March 20, 2012 by Adam Brown

Rep. Painter and Sen. Okerlund don’t disagree very often.

Correction (April 3, 2012): A database error caused my query to omit roughly half of the votes held each year. The omitted votes were roughly random, so the general patterns aren’t much different here than originally reported (when viewed as percents). That is, we still find that disagreements are rare. The main change you’ll notice from this correction is that the raw numbers are higher. I now report roughly twice as many disagreements in 2012 as I reported previously, although the rate of disagreements is roughly the same (since I now report twice as many agreements, too).

Utah Representative Patrick Painter is running against Senator Ralph Okerlund in Senate district 24. Rep. Painter has served 8 sessions, all in the House, while Sen. Okerlund has served only 4 sessions, all in the Senate. Let’s compare their legislative voting records for the years they have both served (2009-2012).

One caution: Since we’re comparing a representative to a senator, we can only compare their votes on the final version of bills that pass. I explained the reasons for this limitation the first time I compared a Senator’s record to a Representative’s. Long story short: This means we’re likely to underestimate the true amount of disagreement a little.

Rep. Painter and Sen. Okerlund don’t disagree very often. They generally agree upwards of 96-97% of the time. Here’s their percentage of disagreements, by year:

  • 2009: 2.5%
  • 2010: 2.5%
  • 2011: 3.2%
  • 2012: 3.4%

Most often, it’s Rep. Painter’s “no” to Sen. Okerlund’s “yes,” not the other way around. You can see that pattern in this table:

Okerlund “yes” Okerlund “no”
Painter “yes” 1,471 6
Painter “no” 38 2

Rep. Painter and Sen. Okerlund disagreed on only 13 bills that passed through the 2012 legislature. Of these, Rep. Painter voted “no” to Sen. Okerlund’s “yes” 12 times. Here’s the bills where that happened:

There was only one time in 2012 that Sen. Okerlund voted “no” to Rep. Painter’s “yes.” Here it is:

If you’d like to see a complete list of all their disagreements since 2009, send me an email and ask.

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Cage match: Craig Frank vs John Valentine

Posted on March 20, 2012 by Adam Brown

Rep. Frank and Sen. Valentine disagree on 7-10% of the bills that pass.

Correction (April 3, 2012): A database error caused my query to omit roughly half of the votes held each year. The omitted votes were roughly random, so the general patterns aren’t much different here than originally reported (when viewed as percents). That is, we still find that disagreements are rare, and that most disagreements take the form of Frank’s “no” to Valentine’s “yes.” The main change you’ll notice from this correction is that the raw numbers are higher. I now report roughly twice as many disagreements in 2012 as I reported previously, although the rate of disagreements is roughly the same (since I now report twice as many agreements, too).

Utah Representative Craig Frank has declared his intention to seek the Utah Senate seat currently held by John Valentine. Both legislators have served many years in the legislature. Rep. Frank has served 8 sessions (all in the House), Sen. Valentine has served 24 sessions (10 in the House, 14 in the Senate), including a stint as Senate President. Neither is a rookie here.

I have detailed data on legislative voting from 2007 on, making it possible to compare their voting records for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012. (Rep. Craig Frank missed the 2011 session due to a mishap with district maps.) Let’s see what we find.

One caution: Since we’re comparing a representative to a senator, we can only compare their votes on the final version of bills that pass. I explained the reasons for this limitation last time I compared a Senator’s record to a Representative’s. Long story short: This means we’re likely to underestimate the true amount of disagreement a little.

In recent sessions, Rep. Frank and Sen. Valentine disagree on 7-10% of the bills that pass. Here’s the percentage of disagreements, by year:

  • 2007: 6.4%
  • 2008: 6.2%
  • 2009: 5.4%
  • 2010: 9.5%
  • 2011: na
  • 2012: 7.2%

Most often, it’s Rep. Frank’s “no” to Sen. Valentine’s “yes,” not the other way around. You can see that pattern in this table:

Valentine “yes” Valentine “no”
Frank “yes” 1,771 19
Frank “no” 115 14

If we look only at the 2012 session, we see that Rep. Frank voted “no” to Sen. Valentine’s “yes” 28 times. Here’s the bills where that happened:

By contrast, there were 6 times in 2012 that Sen. Valentine voted “no” to Rep. Frank’s “yes.” Here they are:

If you’d like to see a complete list of all their disagreements since 2007, send me an email and ask.

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