Comparing the USU and Key/BYU election prediction polls

Posted on October 23, 2012 by Adam Brown

Both polls agree that Republicans will sweep Utah’s statewide races decisively.

We saw something unusual this week: Two well-designed polls, conducted independently (not by campaigns), in the field at the same time. Damon Cann published the USU pre-election poll last Wednesday, and Quin Monson published the Key Research/BYU election prediction poll yesterday.

Both polls covered the major statewide races. My first instinct was to compare the results. For those with the same instincts, I thought I’d put up the comparison here. Both polls agree that Republicans will sweep Utah’s statewide races decisively.

Both polls drew their sample from the state’s list of registered voters. Both were in the field at the same time. USU was in the field October 8-13, while Key Research was in the field October 9-13. USU sampled 206 voters. Key Research sampled 500. These sample sizes produce margins of error of 7.6% (USU) and 4.4% (Key/BYU). Here’s the predictions in a single table:

USU Key/BYU
President Romney by 53% Romney by 51%
US Senate Hatch by 44% Hatch by 39%
Governor Herbert by 59% Herbert by 46%

The 2 percentage point difference in the president race is negligible and well within the margin of error. The same of true of the 5 point difference in the US Senate race.

The 13 point difference in the gubernatorial race is large and outside the margin of error, although both polls predict a disappointing day for Peter Cooke. Of course, if you read Quin’s analysis, you’ll see that he makes some assumptions about undecided voters to predict that the actual result of the Herbert-Cooke showdown will come closer to a 53% margin, which comes closer to the USU prediction.

Wrapping up: Both polls generally agree. Assuming they correctly predict the actual results on election day, their agreement validates the polling methods so widely used by political scientists.

The USU poll included only statewide races, so we don’t have a comparison point for the Key/BYU poll’s predictions about the various US House races. Still, the agreement between the polls on the statewide races strengthens the credibility of the Key/BYU poll’s predictions within the House districts.

About Adam Brown: Adam Brown is an associate professor of political science at Brigham Young University and a research fellow with the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. You can learn more about him at his website.

Posted in Everything | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Comparing the USU and Key/BYU election prediction polls

Key Research Poll General Election Predictions

Posted on October 22, 2012 by Quin Monson

Don’t go to bed early on election night if you’re interested in the outcome of the Love/Matheson race.

BYU’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy is analyzing a poll conducted by Key Research, a survey and market research company in Provo, about the upcoming general election. We consulted on the questionnaire and sample design and Key Research collected the data.

For this survey 500 voters were sampled from the state’s file of active registered voters; 100 in each of the four congressional districts with an extra 100 oversampled in the 4th Congressional District. Using the voter list for sampling allows information in the file to be used to make the sampling more effective and efficient. Much research in political science confirms that voter turnout is strongly related to voting in past elections, age, and party registration status and all of this information was used to draw a sample of likely Utah voters for a telephone survey.  For more information on this method, see here.

Here are the vote questions along with the results.  For the statewide results, the results have been weighted so that each congressional district is equally represented.  For each question, a very small number of people said that they wouldn’t vote in that election.  Those responses have been omitted.

President
In the November 6, 2012 General Election for U.S. President will you vote for: (READ CHOICES)
71%,  Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans
20%, Barack Obama and Joseph Biden, Jr., the Democrats
9%, Don’t Know / Someone else (DO NOT READ)
n=500

U.S. Senate
In the November 6, 2012 General Election for U.S. Senator will you vote for: (READ CHOICES)
22% Scott Howell, Democrat
61% Orrin Hatch, Republican
17% Don’t Know / Someone else (DO NOT READ)
n=500

Governor
In the November 6, 2012 General Election for Governor of Utah will you vote for: (READ CHOICES)
65%, Gary Herbert and Greg Bell, the Republicans
19%, Peter Cooke and Vincent Rampton, the Democrats
15%, Don’t Know / Someone else (DO NOT READ)
n=500

U.S. House
In the November 6, 2012 General Election for U.S. House of Representative will you vote for: (READ CHOICES)

District 1
20%, Donna M. McAleer, Democrat
62%, Rob Bishop, Republican
18%, Don’t Know / Someone else (DO NOT READ)
n=100

District 2
20%, Jay Seegmiller, Democrat
46%, Chris Stewart, Republican
34%, Don’t Know / Someone else (DO NOT READ)
n=100

District 3
68%, Jason Chaffetz, Republican
15%, Soren Simonsen, Democrat
17%, Don’t Know / Someone else (DO NOT READ)
n=100

District 4
43%, Mia Love, Republican
43%, Jim Matheson, Democrat
14%, Don’t Know / Someone else (DO NOT READ)
n=200

First things first.  The 4th Congressional District race is close!  Keep in mind that the relatively small sample size of 200 for that district has a margin of sampling error of + or – 7 percentage points.  The public polls released during the summer and during the last couple of months show a race that has been going back and forth between Matheson and Love.  With a “don’t know” response that exceeds the margin of sampling error, this one is still up for grabs.

The other races offer no surprises.  Utah is a Republican state and the Republican candidates are clearly ahead.  The statewide races, with the full sample of 500, have a margin of sampling error of + or – 4.4 percentage points and leave no doubt that Mitt Romney, Orrin Hatch, and Gary Herbert are leading in the polls.  But Republicans are also clearly leading in the other three congressional districts, even where a sample size of only 100 has a margin of sampling error of + or – 10 percentage points.

Across all of the races, one important question is what to make of the relatively high “don’t know” response. The easiest way to get a sense of what might happen on Election Day is to allocate them in the same proportion as voters who have made up their minds already. Basically, this means throwing out the undecided voters and recalculating the percentages only for those who have stated a choice.  However, doing so ignores the fact that in general elections Utahns regularly give 3-4% of their votes to candidates from minor parties.

For example, throwing out the “don’t know/someone else” on the presidential race produces a 79% Romney, 21% Obama prediction, but that seems out of reach when you look back at past Utah presidential election results, even for Mitt Romney.  A safer bet is probably to assume that at least 3% of voters will select another candidate leaving you with 76% Romney, 21% Obama split on Election Day.  Assuming the same for the Senate race, you get 71% Hatch, 26% Howell.  For Governor it’s 75% Herbert, 22% Cooke.  For District 4, you would simply give 47.5% to each candidate.  Don’t go to bed early on election night if you’re interested in the outcome of the Love/Matheson race.

Stay tuned.  We’ll post more results from this survey in the next few days.

Survey Methodology
The sample was drawn from the publicly available file of Utah registered voters.  A model of general election turnout was estimated using age, party registration status, length of registration, and past election turnout. This model was used to estimate a probability of voting in the 2012 general election.  A Probability Proportionate to Size (PPS) sample was draw using this turnout estimate such that voters with a higher probability of voting have a higher probability of being selected in the sample.  This produces a sample of likely voters.  The sample was then matched to a database of telephone numbers and sampled voters were administered a questionnaire over the telephone by Key Research. The survey field dates were October 9, 2012 – October 13, 2012.  The statewide sample of 500 produces a margin of sampling error of 4.4%.  The margin of error is larger for questions that some respondents chose not to answer or for the vote questions only asked of voters within each congressional district.  Of course, sampling error is only one possible source of error in survey research.  Results can also be affected by measurement error (e.g. question wording and question order), coverage error (e.g. counting as “likely voters” survey respondents who will not vote), and non-response error (e.g. the people who responded to they survey are systematically different from people who refused or were not reachable).

**Update: Click here to download a topline report that includes the full survey questionnaire, frequencies for each question, and a detailed methodological report (including details about the sampling as well as response rates and cooperation rates).

About Quin Monson: Quin Monson is Associate Professor of Political Science and a Senior Scholar with the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University.

Posted in Everything | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Key Research Poll General Election Predictions

USU Pre-Election Poll

Posted on October 17, 2012 by Damon Cann

The poll finds that Republicans in statewide elections in Utah are running strong this year; this is particularly true of Mitt Romney and Gary Herbert.

This post is written by students in POLS 6010 at Utah State University, a Political Science graduate research methods class. It represents the findings of the students in the class and not the opinions of Utah State University.

A Political Science graduate research methods course at Utah State University conducted a survey over six days in early October. The respondents polled were asked which candidate they planned to vote for in the upcoming elections: senatorial, gubernatorial, and presidential. The results were drawn from a five-minute telephone survey conducted by USU graduate students who called citizens drawn at random from state voter registration records. The results were weighted for age, party registration, and propensity to vote to yield results for a set of likely voters. The poll has a small sample size and thus should be interpreted with caution, and appropriate heed should be given to the 7.6% margin of error in interpreting the numbers. The poll finds that Republicans in statewide elections in Utah are running strong this year; this is particularly true of Mitt Romney and Gary Herbert.

Presidential Race: Romney 74%, Obama 21%

Mitt Romney polled well, as expected. 74% of respondents favored Mitt Romney over President Obama, who was favored by only 21% of respondents. Aside from Utah’s history of voting for Republican presidents, Romney’s status as the first LDS person to receive a major party’s nomination for the presidency has likely bolstered enthusiasm for his candidacy among Utah voters. Additionally, much of this poll was administered shortly after the first Presidential Debate where Romney’s strong performance built support for his candidacy. Even accounting for the margin of error, Romney is (as expected) the runaway favorite for Utah’s Electoral College votes in the upcoming election.

Senate Race: Hatch 67.3%, Howell 23.7%

The data for the Senatorial race resulted in a majority of Utah voters favoring the Republican incumbent Orrin Hatch. However, the results suggest that Hatch is running weaker than the other Republicans seeking statewide office. The Democratic challenger, Scott Howell, received a substantial 23.7%.

There are several explanations for why Hatch’s poll numbers lag behind those of other Republicans in the state. In the primary election, Hatch’s challenger Dan Liljenquist provided considerable competition and could have weakened Hatch’s favorability among Republicans. Additionally, Hatch’s percentage in this poll is within 5 points of his actual percentages in his last two elections, including the 2000 election where Hatch won 66% of the vote against Scott Howell. While not running as strong as other Republicans in statewide elections, Hatch’s lead is large enough to place him in the lead in this race even when accounting for the margin of error.

Gubernatorial Race: Herbert 76%, Cooke 17.3%

The Gubernatorial data showed that the respondents overwhelmingly favored the Republican incumbent, Gary Herbert. 76% of the respondents favored Herbert over the challenger, Peter Cooke who was favored by 17.3%. Herbert polled exceptionally well (even higher than Mitt Romney). While Herbert’s strength against Cooke may have been expected, Herbert’s running on par with Romney comes as something of a surprise (though the difference between the candidates is well within the poll’s margin of error).

Finally, it is worth noting that Romney’s recent national successes may influence other races within the state, with Utah Republicans benefitting from Romney’s coattails. This effect may be boosting Herbert and, to some extent Hatch, in their reelection efforts

Methodological notes

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted by students at Utah State University as part of a class assignment Oct. 8-13, 2012. The survey was conducted from a random sample of individuals drawn from the state’s voter file. The sample is weighted by factors such as the probability of voting, party registration and age so the sample of respondents will reflect the population of likely voters. The margin of error means that one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is +/- 7.6%. The reported margins of error include the sampling design effects and incorporate the weights to adjust for non-response, but the margin of error due to sampling reported with this poll, as with all polls reported in the media, does not entirely account for other possible sources of error including coverage error and nonresponse.

About Damon Cann: Damon Cann is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Utah State University.

Posted in Everything | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Redistricting is not expected to change the partisan balance of Congress

Posted on September 28, 2012 by Adam Brown

They conclude that Utah did not experience a partisan gerrymander of its US House seats.

In a painstaking state-by-state analysis of all 435 U.S. House seats, some sharp political scientists predict that the 2011 redistricting round will have no net effect on the partisan balance of the 2013-2014 U.S. House. That doesn’t mean some states didn’t see a Republican or Democratic gerrymander; it just means that the Republican and Democratic gerrymanders cancel each other out on the national scale.

But here’s the Utah angle: They conclude that Utah did not experience a partisan gerrymander of its US House seats. Details here. (Edit: link fixed. Also a note: The post I’m linking to isn’t about Utah specifically. It’s about all 50 states. But look in the charts to see where Utah is.)

If you want to read a lot more about Utah’s 2011 redistricting, start here or maybe here.

Posted in Everything | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

Do LDS Dems like Mitt Romney?

Posted on August 22, 2012 by Quin Monson

While 23% of all Utah Democrats view Governor Romney favorably, that proportion goes up to 42% when looking only at Mormon Democrats.

This analysis was performed by Matthew Frei, a student research fellow at BYU’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy (like us on Facebook), in collaboration with CSED faculty. The writing is mostly his. Inquiries about this research should come to Kelly Patterson or Quin Monson.

LDS Democrats, an official caucus of the Utah Democratic Party, recently announced a fundraiser as part of the Democratic National Convention next month in Charlotte, NC.  Our last post demonstrated that most Mormon Democrats think Governor Romney’s candidacy is a good thing for their faith. Of course, thinking that Romney’s run for the White House is boon for the LDS Church and personally approving of him are two different things. So, how do Utah’s Democrats feel about the GOP presidential candidate?

Our June telephone survey in cooperation with Key Research asked Utah voters whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Mitt Romney. A higher proportion of Utah Democrats have a favorable impression of Mitt Romney (23%) than the approval of Utah Republicans of Barack Obama’s job performance (5%). While the comparison is complicated by the fact that the question about Romney measures “favorability” and the question about Obama measures “approval” it appears that Utah Democrats are happier about the Republican nominee than are Utah Republicans about the Democratic nominee. We did include additional questions probing why they like or do not like either politician. Still, it is unlikely that almost a quarter of Utah Democrats agree politically with Governor Romney.

What explains the difference?  It is probably shared religious experience that best explains Democrats’ affinity for Romney.  While 23% of all Utah Democrats view Governor Romney favorably, that proportion goes up to 42% when looking only at Mormon Democrats. Only 16% of Democrats from other faiths and 19% of non-religious Democrats say the same. The comparison is even more striking when comparing the proportion of respondents who indicated that they have a “strongly favorable” view of Romney. 19% of Mormon Democrats have a strongly favorable view of the former Massachusetts governor while 4% of Democrats from other religious faiths and 6% of non-religious Democrats said the same.

The 2012 Presidential election provides an opportunity to see how voters form opinions of political candidates. While sharing political beliefs (such as party attachments) with candidates is important, religion also matters. Democratic Mormons are much more likely to like Mitt Romney than are other Democrats.

Survey Methodology

The sample was drawn from the publicly available file of Utah registered voters. A model of general election turnout was estimated using age, party registration status, length of registration, and past election turnout. This model was used to estimate a probability of voting in the 2012 general election. A Probability Proportionate to Size (PPS) sample was drawn using this turnout estimate such that voters with a higher probability of voting have a higher probability of being selected in the sample. For a detailed explanation of a similar model used with PPS sampling in an online survey, see Michael Barber, Chris Mann, J. Quin Monson, and Kelly D. Patterson. “Online Polls and Registration Based Sampling: A New Method for Pre-election Polling.” The sample was then matched to a database of telephone numbers and sampled voters were administered a questionnaire over the telephone by Key Research. The survey field dates were June 12, 2012 – June 19, 2012. The sample of 500 produces a margin of error of 4.4%.

Posted in Everything | Tagged , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Do LDS Dems like Mitt Romney?

Who thinks Governor Romney’s candidacy is good for the LDS Church?

Posted on August 2, 2012 by Kelly Patterson

This analysis was performed by Matthew Frei, a student research fellow at BYU’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, in collaboration with CSED faculty. The writing is mostly his. Inquiries about this research should come to Kelly Patterson or Quin Monson.

Mitt Romney’s popularity in Utah is no secret. Last month, the Key Research/CSED telephone survey of Utah voters found that 76% of them have a favorable impression of the Republican presidential candidate. Perhaps a more interesting question than Romney’s popularity among Utahns is how they feel about the effect that Romney’s candidacy will have on the LDS Church. On the same survey, we asked this question:

Governor Mitt Romney is the first LDS (Mormon) candidate in history to win the presidential nomination of a major political party. Reflecting on this accomplishment, do you think it is overall a good thing or a bad thing for the LDS (Mormon) Church?

  • A good thing
  • A bad thing
  • Don’t know

68% of all Utah voters said that they think Romney’s candidacy is a good thing for the LDS Church. When looking at Mormon voters only, that number jumps to 79%. Of course, most Mormons in Utah are Republicans and it is not surprising that Mormons who share political views with Romney consider his effect on the Church positive.

But how do Mormon Democrats feel Romney’s campaign reflects on the LDS Church? A majority (54%) of Mormon Democrats surveyed actually feels that Romney’s candidacy is a good thing; only 14% of them feel that Governor Romney’s candidacy is a bad thing.

Unfortunately, we do not ask survey respondents why they think the candidacy is good for the Church. Perhaps Mormon Democrats think that a Mormon presidential candidate will go a long way toward bringing their religion into the mainstream, even if he does not share their political views.

Interestingly though, non-Mormon and Mormon Democrats have very similar opinions on the issue. Independent and Republican non-Mormons, however, are less likely to say that Romney is good for the Church and more likely to say they don’t know than are their LDS counterparts.

A second interesting question involves whether active and inactive Mormons feel differently about the candidacy. 52% of Mormons who call themselves “Not very active” or “not active” in the Church think that the candidacy is a good thing.

“Somewhat active” and “very active” members of the LDS Church are more sanguine. 78% of them think that Romney’s candidacy is a good thing.

It is likely, of course, that religiously active LDS Democrats feel quite differently than active Mormon Republicans. Unfortunately, the survey sample is not large enough to assess confidently the interaction of these two variables.

In summary, most Utah voters feel that Romney’s candidacy is overall a “good thing” for the LDS Church. However, the strength of those feelings varies across different groups of Utahns. Republicans and active Mormons are especially optimistic while Democrats and non-practicing Mormons have their doubts.[i]

[i] It is important to note, however, that our survey reached a limited number of people within each of these groups. Among Mormons our survey sample includes 28 Democrats, 42 Independents, and 284 Republicans. 325 Mormons survey respondents consider themselves “somewhat active” or “very active” in the Church while 27 of them call themselves “not active” or “not very active.” Among the Non-Mormons we surveyed, there were 81 Democrats, 30 Independents, and 43 Republicans.

About Kelly Patterson: Kelly Patterson is a professor of political science at Brigham Young University and a senior scholar at the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy.

Posted in Everything | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Who thinks Governor Romney’s candidacy is good for the LDS Church?

Cage match: Janice Fisher and Fred Cox

Posted on July 31, 2012 by Adam Brown

Representatives Cox and Fisher disagreed 54% of the time on close votes.

The new legislative district maps adopted a few months back placed two Utah legislators into the same district: Republican Fred Cox and Democrat Janice Fisher. Now that both have secured their parties’ nominations, they will face each other in November. I compared their legislative records last December when they were first drawn into the same district; let’s do an update now that the general election campaign is about to begin.

Background

Rep. Fisher has served 8 years1 in the Utah House; Rep. Cox has served 2. Their service overlapped in 2011 and 2012, so all the information in this post is drawn from those two general sessions.

Neither legislator has held any leadership positions within the Utah House. The table below compares their legislative service records along a handful of dimensions. I present each representative’s average from the 2011-2012 general sessions, followed by the overall chamber average from the Utah House as a whole.

Rep. Fisher Rep. Cox Utah House
Missed votes 5.8% 0.4% 6.4%
Bills introduced 1.5 4.5 6.4
“Nay” votes 13.1% 7.4% 8.1%
Party support 95.4% 93.9% 94.0%

If you want more information about how a particular statistic was calculated, or if you want to see a particular statistic for all 104 legislators, click on the relevant link in the table.

There’s not a lot to learn from the statistics in this table. Both legislators have better-than-average attendance records. Both introduce fewer bills than average. Both are close to average in the frequency of their “nay” votes. (It’s not surprising that a member of the minority party would vote “nay” more often than a member of the majority party, given that most bills coming to a vote would be sponsored by members of the majority party.) And both legislators are loyal partisans, voting with their co-partisans 94-95 percent of the time.

Disagreements

Over the course of the 2011 and 2012 sessions, there were 1,222 occasions when Representatives Cox and Fisher were both present and voting on the same question. Of these 1,222 votes, they disagreed 198 times (or 16.2% of the time).

Bear in mind, however, that most votes in the Utah legislature pass by overwhelming margins, with Democrats and Republicans alike finding consensus and voting together to pass a bill. (See “Consensus Voting is Still the Norm in the Utah Legislature” for details.)

To make this comparison more interesting, let’s focus on “close votes,” which I define as a vote where fewer than 55 of the House’s 75 members were on the winning side. Of the 1,222 votes, only 200 were “close votes” by this standard. Of these 200 close votes, Representatives Fisher and Cox disagreed 108 times. In other words, Representatives Cox and Fisher disagreed 54% of the time on close votes. That’s enough to give voters something to work with.

If you wish to see a list of every disagreement, download this Excel file. It contains two sheets. The first lists their 108 disagreements on close votes; the second lists all 198 disagreements.

When disagreements matter most

It takes 38 “aye” votes to succeed in the Utah House, so the most interesting disagreements are those where there were exactly 37 or 38 “aye” votes cast. These are the occasions when disagreements matter most. If both legislators had voted “nay,” then the vote would have failed; if both had voted “aye,” then the vote would have passed. There was one such occasion in 2012 and one in 2011.2

In 2012, the House approved HJR 13, which would have placed an item on the ballot asking voters whether the state should enact a new sales tax “to support and enhance heritage, arts, culture, and museums throughout the state.” It squeaked through the House with 38 votes, the minimum required. Representative Cox voted “nay” while Representative Fisher voted “aye.” The bill would have failed if Rep. Fisher switched her vote. (This bill was later repealed in a special session.)

In 2011, the House defeated HB 339, which would “authorize the State Board of Education to annually approve an increase in charter school enrollment capacity.” It received 37 “aye” votes, one short of the 38 needed. Representative Fisher voted “nay” while Representative Cox voted “aye.” The bill would have passed if Rep. Fisher switched her vote.3

These weren’t the most important bills considered by the Utah House in 2011-2012. Neither attracted any press attention that I can remember. These were simply the two votes where a disagreement between Cox and Fisher was decisive for the outcome. I don’t have the time to sift through the Excel file listing every disagreement, but if some enterprising reporter wants to undertake that effort and look for information that will be useful to voters, I’d be happy to link to the results.

Further reading

I have produced detailed service records for each member of the Utah legislature. You can read Rep. Janice Fisher’s profile or Rep. Fred Cox’s profile. To help put the statistics from these profiles into context, see “What have we learned about the 2012 Utah legislature?”

The best way to get a feel for how these two good public servants differ in their issue positions is to download the Excel file listing all their disagreements and poke around. The file doesn’t list the topic for each bill, but it contains a link the Legislature’s entry for each vote. From there, you can find the bill number, which you should plug into the Legislature’s “quick bill search” form in the upper-right part of their website.

Posted in Everything | Tagged , , , , , , | Comments Off on Cage match: Janice Fisher and Fred Cox

Public Opinion on Gay Marriage in Utah

Posted on July 9, 2012 by Kelly Patterson

Opposition to gay marriage has dropped to 29%. Meanwhile, 43% of Utah voters support civil unions, and 28% support gay marriage.

This analysis was performed by Matthew Frei, a student research fellow at BYU’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, in collaboration with CSED faculty. The writing is mostly his. Inquiries about this research should come to Kelly Patterson or Quin Monson.

President Obama’s recent shift on the gay marriage issue has brought renewed attention to the trends in national surveys.  Survey data from Gallup, Pew, and New York Times/CBS  all show that Americans are now more likely to agree with the administration than they were just a few years ago.

What about Utah?  Data from the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy (CSED) indicate similar changes are occurring here.  Beginning in 2004, we have asked the following question (identical to the New York Times/CBS poll) four times–twice on the Utah Colleges Exit Poll (UCEP) and twice on the Utah Voter Poll (UVP).

“Which of the following comes closest to your view?

  • Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry.
  • Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry.
  • There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship.“

In 2004, 54% of Utah voters stated there should be no legal recognition of gay relationships. Only 25% supported civil unions.  Such results are not too surprising because Utah had just witnessed a campaign in which voters approved Amendment 3.

Now, opposition to gay marriage has dropped to 29%. Meanwhile, 43% of Utah voters support civil unions, and 28% support gay marriage.  A majority of Utah voters began to support recognition of gay relationships sometime between November 2004 and January 2009. However, we do not have any data between those years to identify precisely when the change occurred.

The increase in support for civil unions in Utah can be seen across several groups.  In 2004, only 23% of Utah Republicans and 27% of Independents were in favor of civil unions. Now, 53% of Republicans and 48% of Independents express support. Furthermore, among both of those groups, opposition to any legal recognition of gay relationships has declined.

Among Democratic voters, support for civil unions has declined as voters move toward support of gay marriage. In 2004, 31% of Democrats were in favor of civil unions while 55% supported gay marriage. Now, only a quarter of Democrats prefer civil unions while 72% favor gay marriage.

Shifts within religious groups seem to mirror those of partisans.  LDS voters remain opposed to gay marriage.  However, their preference for civil unions has increased from 24% to 54%.

Voters from other religious groups are more likely to favor gay marriage. In 2004, 44% favored allowing gay couples to marry while only 29% preferred civil unions. Now, 60% of those voters prefer gay marriage while 27% would rather allow civil unions.
Among those who indicated that they have no religious preference or affiliation, support for gay marriage increased 10 points (66% to 76%) between 2004 and 2012.

In Utah, like much of the rest of the nation, opinion seems to be moving in the direction of support for some legal recognition of same-sex relationships. However, in Utah that shift has been largely in favor of civil unions rather than marriage.

Posted in Everything | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Volunteerism Doesn’t Translate into Higher Voter Turnout in Utah

Posted on July 7, 2012 by Morgan Lyon Cotti

A population that has higher rates of volunteerism and church attendance should be more likely to vote

Last week I wrote a post about Utah’s declining voter turnout rates, and examined whether uncompetitive elections have played a role in the substantial decline in turnout over the last several decades. The idea that a voter’s perception that his or her vote makes a difference is important was derived from Anthony Downs’ calculus of voting. Another part of Downs’ theory states that a person’s sense of gratification or duty may influence whether they vote.

In a report written by the Utah Foundation about voter turnout in Utah, we explored the idea that gratification or duty affect whether a person votes. This is a very difficult and subjective thing to measure, but political science and behavioral research has shown that there is a very close tie between volunteering and political participation.1 Therefore, volunteerism provides a similar though equally subjective measure of gratification, and may also provide a baseline to understand how Utahns view civic duty.

From 2008-2010, Utah ranked as the top state for residents who volunteer and total hours volunteered.2 Utah’s high volunteer ranking is due in part to the fact that 63.8% of Utah’s service hours were connected to a religious location. The prominence of volunteering through the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints gives a significant boost to Utah’s volunteer hours; nationally, the average proportion of volunteer hours connected to a religious location was 35%.

Utah’s high rate of volunteering and its connection to a religious institution may indicate that religious affiliation promotes civic engagement and perhaps should encourage political engagement as well. Anecdotally, this has been seen, such as when members of the LDS Church were specifically encouraged to participate in the 2012 caucus meetings, which contributed to the record attendance and a significant increase in the proportion of LDS-affiliated Republican delegates. Or in 2008, when members of the LDS Church were asked to support efforts to pass Proposition 8 in California, which added a new provision to the California Constitution that defined marriage as being between one man and one woman, they turned out in force (both within California and in Utah) to donate time and money.

Despite Utah’s high volunteer rates, and the impressive response that can be seen when members of the LDS Church are asked to become involved in political issues, this does not translate into higher voter turnout. The figure below shows the relationship between volunteerism and voter turnout for all states. The data show a positive relationship, as states with higher rates of volunteerism also have higher voter turnout rates. Minnesota tops the list for voting rates and is also quite high in volunteerism. Hawaii, on the other hand, is at the bottom for voting and near bottom for volunteering. However, Utah’s very high level of volunteerism does not translate to high voter turnout, making it a major outlier.3

The relationship between voluntarism and turnout – Utah as an outlier

This is especially interesting because it is often said, albeit very anecdotally, that Utahns are very civically engaged and patriotic. Senator Mike Lee even recently said that “Mormons do have an added dose of a belief in American exceptionalism.” However, the high rates of volunteerism and impressive responses to calls for political action have done little to counteract Utah’s declining voter turnout rates, despite the fact that research has shown that church attendance is closely linked to higher rates of voter turnout.  There seems to be something else at work in this equation, especially since a population that has higher rates of volunteerism and church attendance should be more likely to vote.  Answers to why Utah’s voter turnout has been declining are more plausibly found in its uncompetitive races, or comparatively restrictive voting system.

About Morgan Lyon Cotti: Morgan Lyon Cotti is the Research Director at the Utah Foundation. She holds a PhD in political science from George Washington University.

Posted in Everything | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Volunteerism Doesn’t Translate into Higher Voter Turnout in Utah

Topline Results for Key Research Statewide Voter Survey

Posted on June 26, 2012 by Quin Monson

Releasing the full results serves as a model for the kind of transparency we would like to see more of in public polling in the state of Utah.

Key Research, a survey and market research company based in Provo, recently cooperated with faculty at BYU’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy to conduct a statewide survey.

We’ve already posted some of the results including some scenarios for the Republican U.S. Senate primary and the results of questions probing how Utah Mormons feel about Mitt Romney’s candidacy.

Click here to download a topline report that includes the full survey questionnaire, frequencies for each question, and a detailed methodological report (including details about the sampling as well as response rates and cooperation rates).  Releasing the full results serves as a model for the kind of transparency we would like to see more of in public polling in the state of Utah.

What else is in the survey that we haven’t written about?  The survey includes approval ratings for Governor Herbert (78%), the state legislature (64%), and President Obama (27%) as well as favorability ratings for some of Utah’s incumbent office holders.

We also asked survey respondents to rate their own personal financial situation and Utah’s economy (compared to a year ago).  These numbers will become more interesting as the questions are regularly repeated over time and as political leadership in the state and nation changes hands.

Our first experience working with the team at Key Research was a big success and we plan to consult with them on their surveys in the future.  Stay tuned.

Survey Methodology

The sample was drawn from the publicly available file of Utah registered voters. A model of general election turnout was estimated using age, party registration status, length of registration, and past election turnout. This model was used to estimate a probability of voting in the 2012 general election. A Probability Proportionate to Size (PPS) sample was draw using this turnout estimate such that voters with a higher probability of voting have a higher probability of being selected in the sample. For a detailed explanation of a similar model used with PPS sampling in an online survey, see Michael Barber, Chris Mann, J. Quin Monson, and Kelly D. Patterson. “Online Polls and Registration Based Sampling: A New Method for Pre-election Polling.” The sample was then matched to a database of telephone numbers and sampled voters were administered a questionnaire over the telephone by Key Research. The survey field dates were June 12, 2012 – June 19, 2012. The sample of 500 produces a margin of error of 4.4%.

Posted in Everything | Tagged , , | 7 Comments