Releasing the full results serves as a model for the kind of transparency we would like to see more of in public polling in the state of Utah.
We’ve already posted some of the results including some scenarios for the Republican U.S. Senate primary and the results of questions probing how Utah Mormons feel about Mitt Romney’s candidacy.
Click here to download a topline report that includes the full survey questionnaire, frequencies for each question, and a detailed methodological report (including details about the sampling as well as response rates and cooperation rates). Releasing the full results serves as a model for the kind of transparency we would like to see more of in public polling in the state of Utah.
What else is in the survey that we haven’t written about? The survey includes approval ratings for Governor Herbert (78%), the state legislature (64%), and President Obama (27%) as well as favorability ratings for some of Utah’s incumbent office holders.
We also asked survey respondents to rate their own personal financial situation and Utah’s economy (compared to a year ago). These numbers will become more interesting as the questions are regularly repeated over time and as political leadership in the state and nation changes hands.
Our first experience working with the team at Key Research was a big success and we plan to consult with them on their surveys in the future. Stay tuned.
The sample was drawn from the publicly available file of Utah registered voters. A model of general election turnout was estimated using age, party registration status, length of registration, and past election turnout. This model was used to estimate a probability of voting in the 2012 general election. A Probability Proportionate to Size (PPS) sample was draw using this turnout estimate such that voters with a higher probability of voting have a higher probability of being selected in the sample. For a detailed explanation of a similar model used with PPS sampling in an online survey, see Michael Barber, Chris Mann, J. Quin Monson, and Kelly D. Patterson. “Online Polls and Registration Based Sampling: A New Method for Pre-election Polling.” The sample was then matched to a database of telephone numbers and sampled voters were administered a questionnaire over the telephone by Key Research. The survey field dates were June 12, 2012 – June 19, 2012. The sample of 500 produces a margin of error of 4.4%.