Tag Archives: presidential election

2012 was Utah’s most Republican-leaning presidential vote since statehood

Relative to the nation, Utah cast a more Republican vote in 2012 than at any time since statehood. I just noticed something interesting while playing with the 2012 presidential election results for Utah. By one metric, it appears Utah may … Continue reading

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Which Utah pollsters correctly predicted the election results?

Only one of Utah’s three professional pollsters was reasonably accurate with almost every prediction it made. In the two weeks prior to the election, several pollsters tried their hand at forecasting the election results in Utah’s various races. I thought … Continue reading

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What the election shows: That social science works

Before any of the debates. Before SuperStorm Sandy. Before the last-minute barrage of campaign advertising. He predicted the result perfectly over a month ago. Over the past several months, political scientists have consistently forecasted an Obama victory–a relatively narrow one, … Continue reading

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No, Utah will not have 80% turnout

Estimating Utah’s turnout by looking only at registered voters is like estimating Utah’s average wealth by looking only at those who are employed. Important note (November 20, 2012). The turnout numbers below rely on data from Michael McDonald. He has … Continue reading

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How Deep is Support for Romney Among Mormons Nationally?

The religious group affinity some Mormons appear to feel for Romney comes though a little more clearly among Republicans and independents where Romney receives nearly unanimous support from Mormon Republicans and enjoys a 2:1 advantage among Mormon independents. Given their … Continue reading

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Who Do Mormons Say Represents Their Faith Positively?

When you consider that Mormons overwhelmingly identify as Republicans, it is unsurprising that Mitt Romney is viewed by a large majority of Mormons as positively representing their faith. In a previous post, we reported findings from the June Key Research … Continue reading

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Key Research Poll General Election Predictions

Don’t go to bed early on election night if you’re interested in the outcome of the Love/Matheson race. BYU’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy is analyzing a poll conducted by Key Research, a survey and market research … Continue reading

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USU Pre-Election Poll

The poll finds that Republicans in statewide elections in Utah are running strong this year; this is particularly true of Mitt Romney and Gary Herbert. This post is written by students in POLS 6010 at Utah State University, a Political … Continue reading

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Is Huntsman more electable than Romney?

Gamblers are more willing to bet their money that Huntsman can beat Obama than that Romney can. Intrade runs betting markets on just about everything. Because people are putting money on the line, the current intrade share prices can be … Continue reading

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Why Mitt Romney is not the inevitable nominee

Romney is no more “inevitable” than Howard Dean in 2004 or Hillary Clinton in 2008. Mitt Romney has polled consistently with around 20% support for months. Meanwhile, we’ve seen a variety of opponents rise rapidly than fall. First it was … Continue reading

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