Tag Archives: campaigns

The Current State of the 2014 Utah Campaigns

It is too early to tell whether it will come down to the 768 voters who gave Matheson a win over Love in 2012, but our evidence indicates that as of late October, the 4th District’s 2014 outcome is still … Continue reading

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How early did voters decide who to vote for?

In noncompetitive, low-profile races like the first and third districts, voters take a bit longer to decide than they do in competitive, highly publicized races like the fourth district. This analysis was performed by Robert Richards, a student research fellow … Continue reading

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Can Mia Love Still Win?

If the Utah Colleges Exit Poll estimate accurately reflects all absentee voters, Love will make up some of the current deficit but eventually lose by 1,572 votes. This analysis was performed by Matthew Frei, a student research fellow at BYU’s Center for the … Continue reading

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What the election shows: That social science works

Before any of the debates. Before SuperStorm Sandy. Before the last-minute barrage of campaign advertising. He predicted the result perfectly over a month ago. Over the past several months, political scientists have consistently forecasted an Obama victory–a relatively narrow one, … Continue reading

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Who Do Mormons Say Represents Their Faith Positively?

When you consider that Mormons overwhelmingly identify as Republicans, it is unsurprising that Mitt Romney is viewed by a large majority of Mormons as positively representing their faith. In a previous post, we reported findings from the June Key Research … Continue reading

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Do LDS Dems like Mitt Romney?

While 23% of all Utah Democrats view Governor Romney favorably, that proportion goes up to 42% when looking only at Mormon Democrats. This analysis was performed by Matthew Frei, a student research fellow at BYU’s Center for the Study of … Continue reading

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Cage match: Janice Fisher and Fred Cox

Representatives Cox and Fisher disagreed 54% of the time on close votes. The new legislative district maps adopted a few months back placed two Utah legislators into the same district: Republican Fred Cox and Democrat Janice Fisher. Now that both … Continue reading

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What do Mormons think about Governor Romney’s candidacy?

67.5% said they did not trust the media to cover the Church fairly, and after the diatribes of the Lawrence O’Donnells of the world, who can blame them? The 2012 presidential candidacy of Governor Romney has shined a spotlight on … Continue reading

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Do statistics (like absentee rates) matter in reelection campaigns?

I encourage voters to use these statistics to supplement other information, not to supplant it. I calculate a lot of statistics about the Utah legislature. Lately, I’ve noticed various statistics being used in some of the nomination battles that are … Continue reading

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Why Mitt Romney is not the inevitable nominee

Romney is no more “inevitable” than Howard Dean in 2004 or Hillary Clinton in 2008. Mitt Romney has polled consistently with around 20% support for months. Meanwhile, we’ve seen a variety of opponents rise rapidly than fall. First it was … Continue reading

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