The Utah Priorities Survey: Top issues in 2010 and 2012

Posted on April 9, 2012 by Adam Brown

The list of top ten issues Utah voters are most concerned with was mostly filled with themes we’ve seen throughout the last few elections

This is a guest post by Morgan Lyon Cotti, Senior Research Analyst at the Utah Foundation.

Last week Adam Brown wrote a post about the Tea Party’s declining favorability, and cited polling data showing that unfavorable views of the Tea Party have increased considerably since 2010. This is also reflected in recent survey’s Utah Foundation has completed as well.

In each gubernatorial election year, Utah Foundation holds its Utah Priorities Project. which begins with a survey of voters to assess which issues are most important in the upcoming election, and how they feel about Utah’s economy, society and politics. The 2012 Utah Priorities Survey began by asking a sample of 400 people two open-ended questions: 1) What would you say is the greatest issues facing Utah? and 2) What is the next greatest issue? The answers from the open-ended survey were analyzed and grouped into 19 major topic areas, from which a larger survey was created and administered to 804 respondents statewide from February 15-22, 2012. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5% and the data are weighted by congressional district.

During this election year, the list of top ten issues Utah voters are most concerned with was mostly filled with themes we’ve seen throughout the last few elections, like jobs and the economy, K-12 education, energy issues, healthcare, and taxes and state government spending. There are some issues that were priorities in 2010, like states’ rights and ethics of elected officials that dropped in significance. Lack of concern over ethics is surely because there were no notable scandals during this year’s legislative session. However, the issue over states’ rights tells a different story. (Bold face indicates items added to the top top ten in 2012; italics indicates items that fell from the top ten since 2010.)

Utah Priorities Survey
Top Issues in 2010 Top Issues in 2012
1 Jobs and the economy Jobs and the economy
2 Government spending K-12 education
3 K-12 education Energy issues
4 Healthcare Healthcare
5 Ethics of elected officials Taxes and state government spending
6 Taxes Higher education
7 Energy issues Environmental issues
8 States’ rights Partisan politics
9 Environmental issues Poverty
10 Immigration Immigration

In 2010, the Tea Party was seen as much more favorable, and was influential in shaping public discourse and opinion. As such, the issue of states’ rights was one of the top priorities of Utah voters that year, and the top issue for registered Republicans and Republican delegates. In addition, Republican delegates also listed protecting gun rights and allowing mining and grazing on federal lands as top issues. These issues have fallen considerably since then. In 2012, protecting states rights ranked 15th (out of 19 issues) for all voters and 7th for Republicans. And though Republican law makers and gubernatorial candidates have focused on access to public lands the last few months, we’ve seen this dialogue has not made it a priority for voters, who ranked it 17th, or even Republican voters, who ranked it 13th.

Another interesting note, one of the issues that made the top ten list this year for the first time is partisan politics. This may signal that in addition to not prioritizing some of those issues that were pushed by partisan forces in 2010, voters see the actual conflict created by partisan politics as problematic.

To learn more about the Utah Priorities Project and voter survey visit: http://www.utahfoundation.org/reports/?p=839.

To learn more about the gubernatorial candidate survey visit: http://www.utahfoundation.org/reports/?p=847.

About Adam Brown: Adam Brown is an associate professor of political science at Brigham Young University and a research fellow with the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. You can learn more about him at his website.

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The Utah legislature passes far more bills than Congress

Posted on April 4, 2012 by Adam Brown

We should expect fewer laws out of the Utah legislature than out of Congress, yet we see the opposite.

As I prepped some lecture data for my Congress course today, I was surprised at something I hadn’t noticed before: Congress passes far fewer laws than the Utah legislature.

I did a double take. How could it be? Utah’s legislators meet for only 45 days, but Congress meets year-round. Utah legislators govern a small state of only 2-3 million, home to 0.9% of the country’s population, but Congress governs a large nation of over 300 million residents. Utah’s legislature has only 104 members pushing their projects, but Congress has 535 legislators pushing their personal projects.

What do we see? Utah has less time to write laws, a smaller population to govern, and fewer legislators pushing pet projects. Add to that Utah’s love of the old conservative motto: “That government is best which governs least.” Because of all this, we should expect fewer laws out of the Utah legislature than out of Congress, yet we see the opposite.

The data

Each Congress lasts two full years. We are presently witnessing the 112th Congress, spanning January 2011 through January 2013. To make things comparable, I compare all bills passed in 2009 and 2010 by the Utah legislature to all bills passed during the 111th Congress (Jan 2009 through Jan 2011) by Congress.

If you want to know more about my data, check the footnote at the end of this sentence.1

The comparison

Utah’s legislature (blue line) passes roughly twice as many bills as Congress (red line) typically does during the same time period.

Utah passed more bills during the 2011-2012 sessions than during any other two-year period in this chart. If any special sessions are held in 2012, then the total will rise. Meanwhile, there has been a downward trend in Congress since the 2003-2004 session.

Bills per capita

The difference is even more striking when we consider population. In this next chart, I’ve divided the number of bills passed by the population of Utah (in millions) and the United States as a whole (also in millions). During any given two-year period, Utah’s legislature tends to enact roughly 300 new laws for every 1 million residents. Meanwhile, Congress enacts roughly 1 or 2 for every million residents.

Bills per legislator

Here’s one more way to look at it. I’ve divided the number of bills by the number of legislators serving in each body. Utah has 104 legislators (75 in the House, 29 in the Senate) and Congress has 535 (435 in the House, 100 in the Senate).

On average, a typical Utah legislator passes 7-8 bills during any two-year period. Meanwhile, a typical member of Congress passes less than 1 during the same period.

Why the difference?

I can think offhand of two explanations for this gap.

First, we live in a federal system. I suppose that it’s possible that members of Congress are choosing to leave most legislating to the states, so they are passing fewer bills to allow states to lead on policymaking. (As I write this, I can hear a solid majority of Utah legislators laughing out loud.) I’m not sure this is the right explanation.

Second, we have a single subject rule in Utah. The state’s constitution prohibits the legislature from addressing more than one topic in a single bill. (Caveat: Utah’s courts  interpreted this rule broadly in a 2008 case.) Because Congress has no single subject rule, it’s possible that bills passed out of Congress are much, much longer and far-reaching than bills passed out of the legislature.

Unfortunately, I don’t have data on bill length handy. Still, Congressional bills would have to be roughly 10 times longer than Utah bills to explain the gap in “new bills per legislator.” Moreover, Congressional bills would have to be roughly 200 times longer than Utah bills to account for the “new bills per million residents.”

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The Tea Party’s declining favorability

Posted on April 2, 2012 by Adam Brown

“Unfavorable” views of the Tea Party movement have jumped from 22% in February 2010 to 51% in March 2012, mostly at the expense of “don’t know” respondents.

The Tribune ran an article over the weekend about the Tea Party’s (waning) influence in Utah politics. I was quoted characterizing some trends in the national polling data. For the curious, here are the exact polling numbers. My statements were based on trends in two separate polls.

Poll 1: Declining Tea Party favorability

The first is from Fox News, generally posed to a sample of around 1000 voters. Here’s the question wording:

“I’m going to read you the names of several groups and individuals. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. If you’ve never heard of one, please just say so. … The Tea Party Movement.”

The results are in the figure below. Note that “favorable” has been mostly flat (with a minor downward trend) since this question was first asked in early 2010. “Unfavorable” views of the Tea Party movement have jumped from 22% in February 2010 to 51% in March 2012, mostly at the expense of “don’t know” respondents.

D you have a generally favorable of unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement?

We see that the tea party maxed out its support two years ago. Those who weren’t familiar with it at the time are overwhelmingly “unfavorable” today. Some of those who were “favorable” two years ago have shifted to “unfavorable.” From these polls, it appears that the tea party’s moment is waning nationwide.

Poll 2: Steady Tea Party membership

The second poll was run by Quinnipiac University, generally to over 2000 respondents each time. Here’s the question wording: “Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not?”

It’s a very different thing to ask people whether they are “part of the Tea Party movement” (as this poll does) instead of whether they have a “favorable” opinion. You’ll get far fewer “unsure” responses when asking this question. Generally, people know whether they are part of something or not.

Because the question is different, the trend is also a little different. We see a pretty flat line from early 2010 (when the question was first asked) until February 2012, the most recent version of this poll. Roughly 12-16% of respondents are “part” of the Tea Party movement in any given poll. That’s about one-third as many respondents as had a “favorable” opinion of the Tea Party in the Fox News poll.

Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not?

Punchline

There are roughly as many people (12-16%) today who consider themselves “part of the Tea Party movement” as two years ago. There are also almost as many people today (30%) with a favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement as two years ago (35%). However, there has been a steep drop in the percentage of people who don’t have an opinion about the Tea Party, from 42% two years ago to 19% today. Most of them have developed an unfavorable opinion, producing a rise from 22% two years ago to 51% today in the percentage with an unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party.

You can find lots more polling about the tea party here.

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Cage match: Casey Anderson vs Evan Vickers

Posted on March 20, 2012 by Adam Brown

Rep. Vickers and Sen. Anderson disagree relatively often for members of the same party.

Sen. Casey Anderson (R-Cedar City) was appointed last year to serve out the remainder of Sen. Dennis Stowell’s term after his death from cancer. Rep. Vickers (R-Cedar City) sought the appointment, but lost. With election time upon us, Rep. Vickers is challenging Sen. Anderson for the Republican nomination.

Neither has been in the legislature long. Sen. Anderson has served only a single year. Rep. Vickers has served four years in the Utah House. Although their service overlapped only in 2012, let’s take a quick look at their voting in 2012 to see what differences we find.

One caution: Since we’re comparing a representative to a senator, we can only compare their votes on the final version of bills that pass. I explained the reasons for this limitation the first time I compared a Senator’s record to a Representative’s. Long story short: This means we’re likely to underestimate the true amount of disagreement a little.

Rep. Vickers and Sen. Anderson disagree relatively often for members of the same party. They disagreed 11.1% of the time during the 2012 session.

Most often, it’s Rep. Vickers’s “yes” to Sen. Anderson’s “no.”

Anderson “yes” Anderson “no”
Vickers “yes” 382 29
Vickers “no” 9 2

Here’s the 9 bills where Sen. Anderson voted “yes” to Rep. Vickers’s “no”:

Here’s the 39 bills where Sen. Anderson voted “no” to Rep. Vickers’s “yes”:

Correction (April 3, 2012): A database error caused my query to omit roughly half of the votes held each year. The omitted votes were roughly random, so the general patterns aren’t much different here than originally reported (when viewed as percents). That is, we still find that disagreements are rare. The main change you’ll notice from this correction is that the raw numbers are higher. I now report roughly twice as many disagreements in 2012 as I reported previously, although the rate of disagreements is roughly the same (since I now report twice as many agreements, too).

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Cage match: Patrick Painter vs Ralph Okerlund

Posted on March 20, 2012 by Adam Brown

Rep. Painter and Sen. Okerlund don’t disagree very often.

Correction (April 3, 2012): A database error caused my query to omit roughly half of the votes held each year. The omitted votes were roughly random, so the general patterns aren’t much different here than originally reported (when viewed as percents). That is, we still find that disagreements are rare. The main change you’ll notice from this correction is that the raw numbers are higher. I now report roughly twice as many disagreements in 2012 as I reported previously, although the rate of disagreements is roughly the same (since I now report twice as many agreements, too).

Utah Representative Patrick Painter is running against Senator Ralph Okerlund in Senate district 24. Rep. Painter has served 8 sessions, all in the House, while Sen. Okerlund has served only 4 sessions, all in the Senate. Let’s compare their legislative voting records for the years they have both served (2009-2012).

One caution: Since we’re comparing a representative to a senator, we can only compare their votes on the final version of bills that pass. I explained the reasons for this limitation the first time I compared a Senator’s record to a Representative’s. Long story short: This means we’re likely to underestimate the true amount of disagreement a little.

Rep. Painter and Sen. Okerlund don’t disagree very often. They generally agree upwards of 96-97% of the time. Here’s their percentage of disagreements, by year:

  • 2009: 2.5%
  • 2010: 2.5%
  • 2011: 3.2%
  • 2012: 3.4%

Most often, it’s Rep. Painter’s “no” to Sen. Okerlund’s “yes,” not the other way around. You can see that pattern in this table:

Okerlund “yes” Okerlund “no”
Painter “yes” 1,471 6
Painter “no” 38 2

Rep. Painter and Sen. Okerlund disagreed on only 13 bills that passed through the 2012 legislature. Of these, Rep. Painter voted “no” to Sen. Okerlund’s “yes” 12 times. Here’s the bills where that happened:

There was only one time in 2012 that Sen. Okerlund voted “no” to Rep. Painter’s “yes.” Here it is:

If you’d like to see a complete list of all their disagreements since 2009, send me an email and ask.

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Cage match: Craig Frank vs John Valentine

Posted on March 20, 2012 by Adam Brown

Rep. Frank and Sen. Valentine disagree on 7-10% of the bills that pass.

Correction (April 3, 2012): A database error caused my query to omit roughly half of the votes held each year. The omitted votes were roughly random, so the general patterns aren’t much different here than originally reported (when viewed as percents). That is, we still find that disagreements are rare, and that most disagreements take the form of Frank’s “no” to Valentine’s “yes.” The main change you’ll notice from this correction is that the raw numbers are higher. I now report roughly twice as many disagreements in 2012 as I reported previously, although the rate of disagreements is roughly the same (since I now report twice as many agreements, too).

Utah Representative Craig Frank has declared his intention to seek the Utah Senate seat currently held by John Valentine. Both legislators have served many years in the legislature. Rep. Frank has served 8 sessions (all in the House), Sen. Valentine has served 24 sessions (10 in the House, 14 in the Senate), including a stint as Senate President. Neither is a rookie here.

I have detailed data on legislative voting from 2007 on, making it possible to compare their voting records for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012. (Rep. Craig Frank missed the 2011 session due to a mishap with district maps.) Let’s see what we find.

One caution: Since we’re comparing a representative to a senator, we can only compare their votes on the final version of bills that pass. I explained the reasons for this limitation last time I compared a Senator’s record to a Representative’s. Long story short: This means we’re likely to underestimate the true amount of disagreement a little.

In recent sessions, Rep. Frank and Sen. Valentine disagree on 7-10% of the bills that pass. Here’s the percentage of disagreements, by year:

  • 2007: 6.4%
  • 2008: 6.2%
  • 2009: 5.4%
  • 2010: 9.5%
  • 2011: na
  • 2012: 7.2%

Most often, it’s Rep. Frank’s “no” to Sen. Valentine’s “yes,” not the other way around. You can see that pattern in this table:

Valentine “yes” Valentine “no”
Frank “yes” 1,771 19
Frank “no” 115 14

If we look only at the 2012 session, we see that Rep. Frank voted “no” to Sen. Valentine’s “yes” 28 times. Here’s the bills where that happened:

By contrast, there were 6 times in 2012 that Sen. Valentine voted “no” to Rep. Frank’s “yes.” Here they are:

If you’d like to see a complete list of all their disagreements since 2007, send me an email and ask.

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Evaluating the Senate’s second reading calendar

Posted on March 19, 2012 by Adam Brown

Absenteeism is, indeed, higher on the second reading.

I posted earlier about absentee rates in the 2012 Utah legislature. There’s been some discussion in the comments about the second versus third reading calendars in the Senate. Here’s some data.

Background: The Senate’s second reading calendar

In the House, bills need only one floor vote (the “third reading”) to pass. In the Senate, bills need two floor votes, the “second reading” and the “third reading.” (Let’s ignore things like committee actions and suspension of the rules for a moment.)

Sitting in the galleries, I’ve formed two impressions about Senate floor voting.

  • First, Senators are more likely to skip second reading votes than third reading votes, since they know the vote isn’t final.
  • Second, Senators seem more willing to vote “yes” on a second reading than on the third reading, for the same reason.

Let’s test those hunches. This comparison is a little hard. I can only look at votes that passed, since those show up in voting records as “Senate/ passed 3rd reading” or “Senate/ passed 2nd reading” or something similar. Unfortunately, votes that fail show up as “Senate/ failed” without indicating which reading it was. So this analysis may be off, since we’re looking only at votes that pass.1

Absenteeism on the second reading

Absenteeism is, indeed, higher on the second reading. From 2007 through 2012, the average second reading vote had 3.7 senators absent (that’s 12.6% of the chamber); the average final vote (including votes that merged the 2nd and 3rd readings under suspension) had 3.0 senators absent (10.3% of the chamber).

That’s what you see when you average across all six sessions from 2007 through 2012. Something stands out when you look at it year-by-year, though, as in the figure below. You’ll notice that the gap is much wider in 2011 and 2012 than in previous years.

In 2011, the average 2nd reading had 5.1 Senators absent (17.6%); the average final vote had only 3.7 Senators (12.8%) absent.

In 2012, the overall numbers were somewhat smaller, but the gap was just as large. The average 2nd reading had 3.8 Senators absent (13.1%), while the average final vote had only 2.4 Senators (8.3%) absent.

“Nay” votes on the second reading

The pattern is far less compelling when it comes to “nay” votes. In many years, there really isn’t a gap at all. In 2012 there was a bit of a gap, though. The average second reading vote attracted 1.4 “nay” votes, compared to 1.0 “nay” votes for the average final vote. I’m not sure that’s a big enough gap to make hey about it.

Wrapping up

I’ve confirmed my hunch about absenteeism being higher on the second reading, but it turns out that my “hunch” was driven by recent experience. There wasn’t much of a gap prior to 2011, but there has been a meaningful gap since then.

I’ve mostly disconfirmed my hunch about “nay” voting being rarer on the second reading, although it looks like there might be something going on there.

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Approval Ratings for Gov. Herbert and the State Legislature

Posted on March 15, 2012 by Quin Monson

This high approval among “strong” Republicans should provide the governor with some reassurance as Republicans hold caucuses and choose delegates

Governor Gary Herbert’s approval among Utah voters is at a healthy 68%, according to a new Utah Voter Poll. His approval is especially strong among self-identified “strong” Republicans, with 94% expressing a favorable view (see the full question wording below). Several Republican candidates have lined up to challenge Governor Herbert’s renomination. This high approval among “strong” Republicans should provide the governor with some reassurance as Republicans hold caucuses and choose delegates for the convention in April.  As our previous work on Republican convention delegates demonstrates, “strong” Republicans are typically a large majority of convention delegates (62% in 2010).

At the same time, approval among Republicans could be seen a bit tepid. Among self-identified “strong Republicans,” only 15% “strongly approve” of Governor Herbert’s performance, with 78% saying that they “approve” (these don’t add to 94% because of rounding). The pattern is similar among “not-so-strong Republicans” and “independent leaning Republicans.” Among these two groups, 17% “strongly approve” while 72% merely “approve.”

Self-identified Democrats generally disapprove of Governor Herbert’s performance, although 35% of Democrats approve (this combines “strong Democrats” and  “not-so-strong Democrats”).

Meanwhile, approval of the Utah legislature is 20 points below the governor, with 48% approval.  Not surprisingly, the most enthusiastic supporters of a Republican-dominated legislature are “strong Republicans,” of whom 81% approve. Meanwhile, only 57% of “not-so-strong Republicans” and “independent leaning Republicans” approve of the legislature’s performance, with a striking 43% disapproving. Democrats overwhelmingly disapprove of the Utah legislature with only 15% expressing a favorable view.

If support among “strong Republicans” wins renomination, then Republican legislators should take comfort from these numbers. However, the poor showing among all other groups may indicate an opening for Democratic legislative candidates able to demonstrate crossover appeal.

On the other hand, political scientists who have studied congressional approval will tell you that approval of Congress as a collective group is always lower than approval for  individual members of Congress.  The same pattern probably holds for the Utah Legislature.  Individual legislators are typically elected because they fit their districts reasonably well.  When they gather as a group, they can do things collectively that lead to approval ratings for the whole group that are lower that those for most of the individual members.  In that light, a 48% approval rating is not too bad.

Methodological notes

The Utah Voter Poll (UVP) is a sample of actual Utah voters who were invited to join an online panel as part of the Utah Colleges Exit Poll.  Like all exit poll participants, UVP panel members were selected via a probability sample of Utah voters who vote at a polling place on election day. This version of the UVP was fielded online from February 27th to March 11th. 504 respondents answered the questions addressed here, producing a margin of error of roughly 4 percentage points. The margin is larger when looking at a subgroup; when looking only at Republicans, for example, the margin of error is about 7 percentage points. The margin of error is also affected by the complex sampling design and is actually different for each question, depending on the distribution of answers.

Following is the exact question wording used along with results in parentheses:

“Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Gary Herbert is doing as Utah Governor?”: Strongly approve (9.7%), approve (58.0%), disapprove (25.0%), strongly disapprove (7.4%).

“Do you approve or disapprove of how the Utah State Legislature is handling its job?”: Strongly approve (2.1%), approve (45.6%), disapprove (29.1%), strongly disapprove (23.2%).

“Generally speaking, do you consider yourself to be a(n): Strong Democrat (9.5%), not so strong Democrat (5.1%), independent leaning Democrat (12.6%), independent (11.0%), independent leaning Republican (22.6%), not so strong Republican (12.99%), strong Republican (22.2%), other (4%), don’t know (0%).”

Note: Thanks to Adam Brown for his help in producing this post.

About Quin Monson: Quin Monson is Associate Professor of Political Science and a Senior Scholar with the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University.

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Recap: What have we learned about the 2012 Utah legislature?

Posted on March 15, 2012 by Adam Brown

In case the whirlwind of posts analyzing the 2012 legislative session has been overwhelming, here’s a quick recap. I’ll be slowing down from here out.

Who sponsored the most bills in 2012? Quick answer: Sen. Curt Bramble, any way you measure it. 2012 was his third straight year as the legislator who introduced the most bills, and his second as the legislator who brought the most bills to a vote.

Poll: Should Utah schools teach about contraception? 58% say yes. The only group opposed was self-identified “strong Republicans.” Of course, our caucus-convention system gives plenty of reason for Republican officials to listen only to that group.

Bills were introduced later, passed faster in 2012 session. The legislature spent less time looking at bills this year (and also in 2011) compared to previous years. It’s possible that this means that the legislature is vetting bills less carefully than in the past.

Consensus voting is still the norm in the Utah legislature. Most votes pass by overwhelming margins, with Republicans and Democrats alike joining on the same side. Bills rarely reach a floor vote unless they have been amended to attract broad appeal.

The Utah legislature’s 20 closest votes in 2012. Yep. It’s a list of the closest votes held this year.

Utah legislators with the best and worst attendance records of 2012. Representatives Fred Cox and Val Peterson and Senator Stuart Reid had the best attendance. I’ll let you click through to see who had the worst attendance.

Who voted “no” in the 2012 Utah legislature? Some legislators enjoy voting “no” more than others, and it’s not a partisan thing. The most “no” votes in each chamber actually came from members of the Republican majority (Rep. John Dougall and Sen. Casey Anderson).

Party support scores for the 2012 Utah legislature. Legislators vary widely in how often they vote with their party’s majority. In party line votes, one Republican representative (Kraig Powell) was as likely to vote with the Republicans as with the Democrats.

I’ve still got a couple more things I may post later on, but expect things to quiet down here for a while.

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Party support scores for the 2012 Utah legislature

Posted on March 15, 2012 by Adam Brown

Which legislators are most partisan in their legislative voting? A legislator’s “party support” score measures the percentage of the time that he votes the same as as the majority of his party. If a House Democrat votes “aye,” and so does the majority of House Democrats, then that boosts the legislator’s party support score.1

I’ve written previously that consensus voting is the norm in the Utah legislature, with very few party-line votes. Because most votes are unanimous, party support scores tend to be very high unless we implement a simple adjustment.

The adjustment: I calculate party support scores based ONLY on “party-line” votes. (A “party-line” vote occurs if the majority of Republicans votes against the majority of Democrats.) By calculating each legislator’s party support score only on party line votes, we can see which legislators are most willing to deviate from their party even when the vote might be close.

Party support scores (party-line votes only)

This table shows the 10 lowest and highest party support scores in the House, looking only at how legislators vote on party-line votes.

Representative Party Party support score (party-line votes only)
Powell, Kraig R 50.0%
Edwards, Rebecca P. R 57.6%
Hendrickson, Neal B. D 57.8%
Bird, Jim R 62.5%
McIff, Kay L. R 64.3%
Hutchings, Eric K. R 64.6%
Perry, Lee B. R 66.7%
Handy, Stephen G. R 67.7%
Pitcher, Dixon M. R 67.7%
…
Eliason, Steve R 68.2%
Painter, Patrick R 92.5%
McCay, Daniel R 93.0%
Arent, Patrice M. D 93.2%
Noel, Michael E. R 93.3%
Sumsion, Kenneth W. R 94.1%
Briscoe, Joel K. D 94.5%
Doughty, Brian D 95.7%
Barrus, Roger E. R 96.6%
Morley, Michael T. R 96.6%
Moss, Carol Spackman D 96.7%

And now, the 5 lowest and highest party support scores in the Senate, looking only at how legislators vote on party-line votes:

Senator Party Party support score (party-line votes only)
Hillyard, Lyle W. R 66.7%
Van Tassell, Kevin T. R 74.5%
Jones, Patricia W. D 76.2%
Davis, Gene D 78.1%
Mayne, Karen D 78.1%
…
Niederhauser, Wayne L. R 94.6%
Madsen, Mark B. R 94.8%
Okerlund, Ralph R 95.4%
Adams, J. Stuart R 96.7%
Anderson, Casey O. R 96.9%

Unadjusted party support scores (all votes)

For the curious, I thought I would show the unadjusted scores also. Scores are much higher when we look at all floor votes, not just party-line votes, for reasons stated above. The minimum score rises from 50.0% in the adjusted version to 83.8% in this version. We also see a significant re-ordering of legislators’ scores.

Here are the 10 lowest and highest unadjusted party support scores in the House, looking at all votes.

Representative Party Party support score (overall)
Dougall, John R 83.8%
Bird, Jim R 86.8%
McCay, Daniel R 87.6%
Sumsion, Kenneth W. R 88.5%
Anderson, Johnny R 89.2%
Morley, Michael T. R 90.2%
Butterfield, David G. R 90.3%
Powell, Kraig R 90.4%
Nielson, Jim R 91.2%
Frank, Craig A. R 91.3%
…
Noel, Michael E. R 96.7%
Seelig, Jennifer M. D 96.7%
Briscoe, Joel K. D 97.0%
Barrus, Roger E. R 97.1%
King, Brian S. D 97.3%
Arent, Patrice M. D 97.4%
Ipson, Don L. R 97.4%
Cosgrove, Tim M. D 97.6%
Poulson, Marie H. D 98.0%
Moss, Carol Spackman D 98.1%

And the 5 lowest and highest scores in the Senate:

Senator Party Party support score (overall)
Anderson, Casey O. R 90.1%
Dayton, Margaret R 91.2%
Stephenson, Howard A. R 94.2%
Jenkins, Scott K. R 94.3%
Hillyard, Lyle W. R 94.4%
…
Bramble, Curtis S. R 98.2%
Knudson, Peter C. R 98.3%
Stevenson, Jerry W. R 98.3%
Christensen, Allen M. R 98.4%
Okerlund, Ralph R 98.8%

Discussion

Several things are interesting about these scores. For one thing, note that Rep. John Dougall has the lowest party support score in the unadjusted data, but far from the lowest in the adjusted data. In fact, his unadjusted score (83.8%) is well below the House average (94.3%), but his adjusted score (87.8%) is easily above the House average (82.7%). This flip suggests that he’s more than willing to vote against his party when his vote is unlikely to change the outcome, but he is far more likely to vote with his party when the vote is potentially close.

Others, like Jim Bird, have a low party support score by both metrics.

Caveat: This is not a measure of whether a legislator is a “good” Republican or a “good” Democrat. It is only a measure of how often each legislator votes with his/her own party. Maybe a particular legislator is the only “good” or “bad” Republican (or Democrat) in the entire chamber, and it’s the rest who are “bad.” You’ll have to judge that on your own.

Complete data tables

You can find party support scores (both flavors) for all legislators at my other website.

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