Tag Archives: voting

What the election shows: That social science works

Before any of the debates. Before SuperStorm Sandy. Before the last-minute barrage of campaign advertising. He predicted the result perfectly over a month ago. Over the past several months, political scientists have consistently forecasted an Obama victory–a relatively narrow one, … Continue reading

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No, Utah will not have 80% turnout

Estimating Utah’s turnout by looking only at registered voters is like estimating Utah’s average wealth by looking only at those who are employed. Important note (November 20, 2012). The turnout numbers below rely on data from Michael McDonald. He has … Continue reading

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How Deep is Support for Romney Among Mormons Nationally?

The religious group affinity some Mormons appear to feel for Romney comes though a little more clearly among Republicans and independents where Romney receives nearly unanimous support from Mormon Republicans and enjoys a 2:1 advantage among Mormon independents. Given their … Continue reading

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Comparing the USU and Key/BYU election prediction polls

Both polls agree that Republicans will sweep Utah’s statewide races decisively. We saw something unusual this week: Two well-designed polls, conducted independently (not by campaigns), in the field at the same time. Damon Cann published the USU pre-election poll last … Continue reading

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USU Pre-Election Poll

The poll finds that Republicans in statewide elections in Utah are running strong this year; this is particularly true of Mitt Romney and Gary Herbert. This post is written by students in POLS 6010 at Utah State University, a Political … Continue reading

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Cage match: Janice Fisher and Fred Cox

Representatives Cox and Fisher disagreed 54% of the time on close votes. The new legislative district maps adopted a few months back placed two Utah legislators into the same district: Republican Fred Cox and Democrat Janice Fisher. Now that both … Continue reading

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Volunteerism Doesn’t Translate into Higher Voter Turnout in Utah

A population that has higher rates of volunteerism and church attendance should be more likely to vote Last week I wrote a post about Utah’s declining voter turnout rates, and examined whether uncompetitive elections have played a role in the … Continue reading

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Do uncompetitive elections hurt turnout in Utah?

As more of these races became uncontested or were won by very large margins of victory, the trend in voter turnout was falling. Utah historically has had a high voter turnout rate. Throughout the first half of last century, it … Continue reading

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Who is going to win the Republican Senate Primary?

While the vote estimates vary depending on the assumptions you make, the outcome is the same across the board.  Senator Hatch is very likely to win, the uncertainty is by how much. Barring a last minute “June surprise” that dramatically … Continue reading

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What are the philosophical differences between the parties?

Differences between the two parties begin with questions about human nature and the good society. Differences between political parties reflect differences in how individuals view the world. These views can be traced back to philosophical questions that have concerned political … Continue reading

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