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We are professors of political science sharing academic research relevant to Utah. Posts are not peer reviewed and may discuss work in progress that is subject to future revision. Learn more. Each post reflects only its author’s views.
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Author Archives: Adam Brown
Could Jim Matheson have beaten Orrin Hatch?
Matheson does not have as much appeal statewide as in the fourth district This analysis was performed by Robert Richards, a student research fellow at BYU’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy (“like” CSED on Facebook), in collaboration … Continue reading
Posted in Everything
Tagged congress, jim matheson, orrin hatch, partisanship, student research, utah colleges exit poll
1 Comment
Nationwide, single member districts hurt Democrats
No matter who controls the Utah Legislature, it will be hard for Democrats to win as many legislative seats in Utah as their popular vote might suggest. I wrote recently that single member districts hurt the minority party, whatever the … Continue reading
Posted in Everything
Tagged congress, legislature, redistricting, single member districts, urban
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Nationwide, single member districts hurt Democrats
Did gerrymandering produce Republican gains in the Utah Legislature?
Single member districts are always going to give the minority party fewer seats than votes, and the disparity gets larger as the minority party gets smaller. I wrote last week that the 2013 Utah Legislature will be the second-most Republican … Continue reading
Posted in Everything
Tagged counties, democrat, legislature, redistricting, representation, republican, salt lake county, single member districts, utah county
1 Comment
Introducing the 2nd most Republican Utah Legislature in 80 years
Utah’s Republicans may have lost the presidency, but they can rejoice in their increased dominance of the state government. Preliminary results suggest that Republicans picked up 3 seats in the Utah House and 2 in the Utah Senate. The 2013 … Continue reading
Lots of freshmen in the Utah House?
In January 2013, there will be more freshmen in the Utah House than at any other time in the past 20 years. From a glance over the election results, it looks like there will be 20 new faces in Utah’s … Continue reading
Which Utah pollsters correctly predicted the election results?
Only one of Utah’s three professional pollsters was reasonably accurate with almost every prediction it made. In the two weeks prior to the election, several pollsters tried their hand at forecasting the election results in Utah’s various races. I thought … Continue reading
Posted in Everything
Tagged Key Research, measurement, polls, presidential election, public opinion, rankings, USU
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Which Utah pollsters correctly predicted the election results?
No, Utah will not have 80% turnout
Estimating Utah’s turnout by looking only at registered voters is like estimating Utah’s average wealth by looking only at those who are employed. Important note (November 20, 2012). The turnout numbers below rely on data from Michael McDonald. He has … Continue reading
Posted in Everything
Tagged election administration, greg bell, measurement, presidential election, turnout, voter registration, voting
3 Comments
Why pollsters should release their topline results
Polls can be done well or poorly. Releasing topline results aids the public in detecting poor polls. The Tribune reported a Mason-Dixon poll last week suggesting a wide Republican advantage in the race for Salt Lake County mayor. Yesterday, the … Continue reading
Posted in Everything
Tagged commentary, measurement, polls, public opinion
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Why pollsters should release their topline results
What kind of Republican is Mia Love?
What kind of Republican is Mia Love? She’s not too far off from Chaffetz, Stewart, and Bishop. Last week, I used Congressional voting data to assess whether Jim Matheson is a moderate or liberal Democrat. The unsurprising conclusion: He’s to … Continue reading
Posted in Everything
Tagged chris stewart, congress, democrat, ideology, jason chaffetz, jim matheson, mia love, nominate, republican, rob bishop
1 Comment
Before any of the debates. Before SuperStorm Sandy. Before the last-minute barrage of campaign advertising. He predicted the result perfectly over a month ago. Over the past several months, political scientists have consistently forecasted an Obama victory–a relatively narrow one, … Continue reading →