Monthly Archives: November 2012

Lots of freshmen in the Utah House?

Posted on November 7, 2012 by Adam Brown

In January 2013, there will be more freshmen in the Utah House than at any other time in the past 20 years. From a glance over the election results, it looks like there will be 20 new faces in Utah’s … Continue reading →

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Which Utah pollsters correctly predicted the election results?

Posted on November 7, 2012 by Adam Brown

Only one of Utah’s three professional pollsters was reasonably accurate with almost every prediction it made. In the two weeks prior to the election, several pollsters tried their hand at forecasting the election results in Utah’s various races. I thought … Continue reading →

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What the election shows: That social science works

Posted on November 7, 2012 by Adam Brown

Before any of the debates. Before SuperStorm Sandy. Before the last-minute barrage of campaign advertising. He predicted the result perfectly over a month ago. Over the past several months, political scientists have consistently forecasted an Obama victory–a relatively narrow one, … Continue reading →

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Utah Colleges Exit Poll Election Night

Posted on November 6, 2012 by Quin Monson

************Updated estimates as of 10:00pm US President Mitt Romney  72% Barack Obama  25% Someone else  3% Projected winner: Mitt Romney US Senate Orrin Hatch  65% Scott Howell  30% Someone else  4% Projected winner: Orrin Hatch Governor Gary Herbert  68% Peter … Continue reading →

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No, Utah will not have 80% turnout

Posted on November 6, 2012 by Adam Brown

Estimating Utah’s turnout by looking only at registered voters is like estimating Utah’s average wealth by looking only at those who are employed. Important note (November 20, 2012). The turnout numbers below rely on data from Michael McDonald. He has … Continue reading →

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Why pollsters should release their topline results

Posted on November 6, 2012 by Adam Brown

Polls can be done well or poorly. Releasing topline results aids the public in detecting poor polls. The Tribune reported a Mason-Dixon poll last week suggesting a wide Republican advantage in the race for Salt Lake County mayor. Yesterday, the … Continue reading →

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How Deep is Support for Romney Among Mormons Nationally?

Posted on November 6, 2012 by Quin Monson

The religious group affinity some Mormons appear to feel for Romney comes though a little more clearly among Republicans and independents where Romney receives nearly unanimous support from Mormon Republicans and enjoys a 2:1 advantage among Mormon independents. Given their … Continue reading →

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What’s up with Senator Mike Lee’s Favorability Rating? (plus Oct 2012 Key Research Toplines)

Posted on November 6, 2012 by Quin Monson

It’s not that Lee is really unpopular, it’s just that even after two years he’s still relatively unknown.  Lee’s statewide favorability resembles the statewide ratings of Utah’s Republican U.S. House members. Key Research, a survey and market research company based … Continue reading →

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