Utah Colleges Exit Poll Election Night

************Updated estimates as of 10:00pm

US President
Mitt Romney  72%
Barack Obama  25%
Someone else  3%
Projected winner: Mitt Romney

US Senate
Orrin Hatch  65%
Scott Howell  30%
Someone else  4%
Projected winner: Orrin Hatch

Governor
Gary Herbert  68%
Peter Cooke  28%
Someone else  4%
Projected winner:  Gary Herbert

Congressional District 1
Rob Bishop  70%
Donna McAleer  25%
Someone else  4%
Projected Winner:  Rob Bishop

Congressional District 2
Chris Stewart  58%
Jay Seegmiller  38%
Someone else  4%
Projected winner:  Chris Stewart

Congressional District 3
Jason Chaffetz  79%
Soren Simonsen  20%
Someone else  1%
Projected winner:  Jason Chaffetz

Congressional District 4
Mia Love  46%
Jim Matheson  50%
Someone else 4%
Projected winner:  **TOO CLOSE TO CALL**  The margin of error is approximately +- 4.5%.

Salt Lake County Mayor
Mark Crockett 38%
Ben McAdams 60%
Someone else 2%
Projected winner: **TOO CLOSE TO CALL**  We polled at only ten locations countywide, and even though we have a sample size of 818, the variability between polling places is too large to bring the margin between the candidates outside of the 95% confidence level.

Salt Lake County Council
Jim Bradley 56%
Joe Demma 42%
Someone else 4%
Projected winner: **TOO CLOSE TO CALL**

Salt Lake County Proposition 1
For 69%
Against 31%
Projected winner: For

*******************************

For the 16th time since 1982, the Utah Colleges Exit Poll has surveyed Utah voters as they left polling places in Utah throughout Election Day.  Today more than 500 student interviewers fanned out to 130 polling locations.

This year’s survey provided some different challenges.  First, with Governor Romney on the ballot, estimating turnout was difficult.  Second, the emphasis on early and absentee voting in Utah led us to conduct surveys of voters who voted before election day.

We’ve been entering data throughout the entire day. Below are the results for the statewide races and the four congressional districts as released at 8:00pm on KBYU.  We have also posted the estimates for some Salt Lake County races.  We’ve faced some obstacles in getting enough sample entered in the Salt Lake County races. When the margin of error (with 95% confidence) allows us to make a projection, we’ll indicate it below, otherwise we’ll indicate “TOO CLOSE TO CALL.”  With data continuing to come in throughout the night, these margins may change.  Check back here for updates.

US President
Mitt Romney  72%
Barack Obama  24%
Someone else  3%
Projected winner: Mitt Romney

US Senate
Orrin Hatch  66%
Scott Howell  30%
Someone else  4%
Projected winner: Orrin Hatch

Governor
Gary Herbert  69%
Peter Cooke  28%
Someone else  4%
Projected winner:  Gary Herbert

Congressional District 1
Rob Bishop  71%
Donna McAleer  25%
Someone else  4%
Projected Winner:  Rob Bishop

Congressional District 2
Chris Stewart  59%
Jay Seegmiller  38%
Someone else  4%
Projected winner:  Chris Stewart

Congressional District 3
Jason Chaffetz  80%
Soren Simonsen  19%
Someone else  1%
Projected winner:  Jason Chaffetz

Congressional District 4
Mia Love  46%
Jim Matheson  49%
Someone else 5%
Projected winner:  **TOO CLOSE TO CALL**

Salt Lake County Mayor
Mark Crockett 39%
Ben McAdams 58%
Someone else 2%
Projected winner: **TOO CLOSE TO CALL**

Salt Lake County Council
Jim Bradley 55%
Joe Demma 42%
Someone else 3%
Projected winner: **TOO CLOSE TO CALL**

Salt Lake County Proposition 1
For 68%
Against 32%
Projected winner: For

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About Quin Monson

Quin Monson is Associate Professor of Political Science and a Senior Scholar with the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University.
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