Does Huntsman have better odds against Obama than against Romney?

Romney has better odds of winning the GOP nod, but Huntsman would have better odds against Obama.

Here’s an amusing deviation from our regularly scheduled programming. Dan Hopkins, a political scientist at Georgetown, had a little fun today playing with betting odds at Intrade. Based on what people are betting right now:

Romney has a 0.299 probability of winning the GOP nomination, much better than Huntsman’s 0.150 probability.

But assuming that Romney won the nomination, he would have only a 0.411 probability of beating Obama, worse than Huntsman’s 0.480.

So Romney has better odds of winning the GOP nod, but Huntsman would have better odds against Obama. (Assuming that we have any faith in the odds that Intrade calculates, of course.)

(To be clear: A probability is on a scale of 0 to 1. I guess another way to read it is to say that a 0.299 probability is a 29.9% chance.)

For the complete breakdown, go here.

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About Adam Brown

Adam Brown is an assistant professor of political science at Brigham Young University and a research fellow with the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. You can learn more about him at his website.
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