Tag Archives: measurement

The closest votes in the 2013 Legislature

Most votes in the Utah Legislature pass with an overwhelming bipartisan majority. It has long been tradition that floor votes in the Utah Legislature pass with overwhelming majorities taking the same side. Democrats and Republicans alike tend to get behind … Continue reading

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2012 was Utah’s most Republican-leaning presidential vote since statehood

Relative to the nation, Utah cast a more Republican vote in 2012 than at any time since statehood. I just noticed something interesting while playing with the 2012 presidential election results for Utah. By one metric, it appears Utah may … Continue reading

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Which Utah pollsters correctly predicted the election results?

Only one of Utah’s three professional pollsters was reasonably accurate with almost every prediction it made. In the two weeks prior to the election, several pollsters tried their hand at forecasting the election results in Utah’s various races. I thought … Continue reading

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What the election shows: That social science works

Before any of the debates. Before SuperStorm Sandy. Before the last-minute barrage of campaign advertising. He predicted the result perfectly over a month ago. Over the past several months, political scientists have consistently forecasted an Obama victory–a relatively narrow one, … Continue reading

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No, Utah will not have 80% turnout

Estimating Utah’s turnout by looking only at registered voters is like estimating Utah’s average wealth by looking only at those who are employed. Important note (November 20, 2012). The turnout numbers below rely on data from Michael McDonald. He has … Continue reading

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Why pollsters should release their topline results

Polls can be done well or poorly. Releasing topline results aids the public in detecting poor polls. The Tribune reported a Mason-Dixon poll last week suggesting a wide Republican advantage in the race for Salt Lake County mayor. Yesterday, the … Continue reading

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The Utah legislature passes far more bills than Congress

We should expect fewer laws out of the Utah legislature than out of Congress, yet we see the opposite. As I prepped some lecture data for my Congress course today, I was surprised at something I hadn’t noticed before: Congress … Continue reading

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Evaluating the Senate’s second reading calendar

Absenteeism is, indeed, higher on the second reading. I posted earlier about absentee rates in the 2012 Utah legislature. There’s been some discussion in the comments about the second versus third reading calendars in the Senate. Here’s some data. Background: … Continue reading

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Recap: What have we learned about the 2012 Utah legislature?

In case the whirlwind of posts analyzing the 2012 legislative session has been overwhelming, here’s a quick recap. I’ll be slowing down from here out. Who sponsored the most bills in 2012? Quick answer: Sen. Curt Bramble, any way you … Continue reading

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Party support scores for the 2012 Utah legislature

Which legislators are most partisan in their legislative voting? A legislator’s “party support” score measures the percentage of the time that he votes the same as as the majority of his party. If a House Democrat votes “aye,” and so … Continue reading

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